From the rapidly developing point based prediction applications in Japan, we can see the demand for event forecasting is spreading into Asia. The business model is rely on the loyalty points, regulatory arbitrage and advertising, which differs from the trading fee as commonly known.
Will Japan formally regulate prediction markets before 2028?
Prediction markets are usually discussed as a financial innovation: traders price future events; markets aggregate information; platforms earn from liquidity, spreads or transaction activity. Japan is testing a different version that is suitable for local people, but the core idea remains the same.
Jun 29 (Bloomberg), In Japan, local APPs such as Miraima allow users to predict real world outcomes, including sports results, political events, stock moves, and entertainment outcomes without staking cash or crypto. Instead they can redeem virtual points for gift cards or third-party reward points such as Amazon or Paypal after successful prediction. Miraima launched only months ago, has reportedly approached one million monthly users, helped by sports events and political interest.
The core demand is clearly there: people want to express views on public events, compete with others and be rewarded when they are right.
Differ from Polymarket or Kalshi, Miraima's business model is more like a combination of prediction market, mobile game, and loyalty points platform. Users are not necessarily trading against a live order book. They are engaging with an app, watching ads, completing tasks, and returning for repeated prediction games. Miraima’s founder says the company is already profitable through fees generated when users watch advertising videos or download apps. But compared with overseas prediction platforms who can monetize transaction and settlement fees, the margin profit of Miraima is till thin.
This distinction matters. Because if the U.S. version of prediction markets is trying to become a regulated financial exchange worldwide, the Japanese version is first becoming an attention business. Due to Japan already has a large loyalty-points economy that can absorb prediction style products and won't looks like a cash gambling immediately. April 2026 (Nomura Research Institute) Private-sector point and mileage issuance by major companies across 12 domestic industries reached ¥1.3695 trillion in FY2024, up about 6% from the previous year, and forecast issuance would grow to ¥1.7257 trillion by FY2029. Cashless payments were the largest catalyst accounting for about 53% of private-sector issuance. This helps explain why a point based prediction app can feel native to Japanese consumer behavior rather than like an imported gambling product.
The regulatory system in Japan is the main reason why using points. The Penal Code broadly prohibits gambling for both ordinary and habitual gambling.This makes real-money prediction markets difficult to operate. Bloomberg also cites Japan Exchange Group CEO Hiromi Yamaji saying that cash based prediction markets would face not only gambling law issues but also difficult questions around insider trading and market manipulation.
Therefore using points, gift cards and shopping rewards instead of cash or crypto, is the best way to stay outside. But the structure is not risk free: Japan’s National Police Agency warns that online gambling can still be illegal even when accessed through overseas or “free bonus point” formats. This shows the regulators will be more cautious when a product looks like wagering.
Point-based prediction APPs are more like financial information markets or gambling products?
The unresolved question is whether Japan will treat these APPs like harmless loyalty games, a new form of gambling, or something closer to financial information markets. Bloomberg reports that lawyers see possible scrutiny under lottery related rules, especially because some Japanese point based services currently do not impose age limits while Polymarket and Kalshi restrict users to 18 and older.
For investors or founders who want to get involved in prediction markets especially in Asia market, have to notice there is no single regulatory path. India and Indonesia has already blocked Polymarket as online gambling platform; while South Korea has officially launched an investigation into whether Polymarket involves online gambling.
The U.S. path looks different, CFTC records list Kalshi as a designated contract market and also show several newer prediction market or event contract related exchange registrations and pending applications, which means American market is moving through financial market infrastructure rather than consumer gaming infrastructure.
The market signal is bullish: nearly one million monthly users for a young prediction APP suggests that event forecasting can become a mass market behavior outside the U.S.
The business-model signal is more mixed: if monetization depends mainly on ads and APP download incentives, these platforms may scale engagement faster than revenue.
The regulatory signal is the most important: once prediction markets become visible enough, Japan will have to decide whether to regulate them, ban them or formally separate “forecasting as information” from “betting as gambling.”
For now, Japan’s point based prediction market is not the Asian version of Polymarket. It is something more local and maybe more revealing: a prediction market disguised as a loyalty points APP. Growing rapidly because users want to bet on the future even when the law does not yet know what to call it.
Prefer a prediction market only contains macro information for trading OR with gamified content？
Source：
1. ポイ活型の予測市場が日本で台頭－賭博規制の隙間突く新サービス、月間100万人突破も ("Point-based" prediction markets are on the rise in Japan—new services exploiting loopholes in gambling regulations are even surpassing one million monthly users), June 29, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/jp/news/features/2026-06-29/THDEWIKIUPS700#gsc.tab=0
- 野村総合研究所、2029年度のポイント・マイレージ年間発行額は約1.7兆円に拡大すると予測 (Nomura Research Institute forecasts that the annual issuance value of loyalty points and mileage will expand to approximately 1.7 trillion yen in fiscal year 2029), April 21, 2026 https://www.nri.com/jp/news/newsrelease/20260421_1.html
- オンラインカジノを利用した賭博は犯罪です！(Gambling using online casinos is a crime!) https://www.npa.go.jp/bureau/safetylife/hoan/onlinecasino/onlinecasino.html
