Election Prediction Markets

Election prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of elections at every level — from presidential races and Senate contests to gubernatorial battles, mayoral runoffs, and international elections. Each contract's price reflects the market's real-time probability estimate for a specific candidate or party winning, updated continuously as polling data, endorsements, debates, and breaking news reshape the race.

This page aggregates live election prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket, covering the most closely watched U.S. and international races. Whether you're following the 2026 midterms, 2028 presidential cycle, or key state and local contests, you'll find the markets' latest probability estimates here.

Election Markets by the Numbers

Live Election Markets on Kalshi

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market — the first U.S. platform authorized to list election contracts following a landmark 2023 court ruling. Please review each contract's rules before trading.

How Election Prediction Markets Work

Each election contract is structured as a binary question — for example, "Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate race?" A contract priced at $0.62 means the market assigns a 62% probability to that outcome. If you buy at $0.62 and the candidate wins, you receive $1.00. If they lose, the contract expires at $0.00.

This mechanism continuously aggregates information from participants with diverse perspectives — campaign insiders, pollsters, political analysts, and engaged citizens. The financial incentive ensures that prices reflect genuine conviction rather than casual opinion, producing forecasts that have repeatedly outperformed polling averages and pundit consensus.

Live Election Markets on Polymarket

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market using USDC stablecoin for settlement. It operates outside U.S. regulatory jurisdiction. Understand the platform's terms and your local regulations before participating.

Election Prediction Markets vs. Polls

Election polls capture a snapshot of stated voter preferences at a single moment. They are subject to sampling error, response bias, turnout modeling assumptions, and cannot incorporate fast-moving events between survey waves. Prediction markets address these limitations by updating continuously and financially incentivizing accuracy.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election demonstrated this difference vividly: prediction markets diverged from polling averages weeks before Election Day and ultimately proved more accurate. Academic research from the Iowa Electronic Markets (operating since 1988) has consistently found that election market prices are well-calibrated — outperforming polls in the majority of races studied.

Popular Election Markets

Where to Trade Election Prediction Markets

Several platforms currently offer election prediction market contracts. Kalshi's 2023 legal victory was a watershed moment — establishing the legal precedent for regulated election contracts in the United States.

Explore Related Markets

The Rise of Election Prediction Markets

Election betting has deep roots — organized wagering on U.S. presidential races was common on Wall Street as early as the 19th century. The modern era began in 1988 with the Iowa Electronic Markets, which demonstrated that even small-scale prediction markets could match or beat major election polls.

The inflection point came in 2023 when Kalshi successfully challenged the CFTC in federal court, establishing the legal precedent for regulated election contracts in the United States. During the 2024 presidential cycle, Polymarket processed billions in election volume while Kalshi offered the first legally sanctioned U.S. election markets — a watershed moment for the industry.

Looking ahead, the 2026 midterms represent the first major test of this new landscape: multiple regulated platforms now compete to offer election contracts, bringing deeper liquidity and broader market coverage than ever before.

Analysis

Our analysis goes beyond raw election odds to explore what prediction markets are signaling about specific races — and where they may be mispricing candidates or outcomes.

Georgia’s 2026 Senate race on Prediction Markets

Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Ossoff can clear the 50% threshold

Prediction MarketsBennet Caldwell

News

Endorsements, debates, polling data, and campaign developments all move election prediction markets. We track the stories that matter most to market participants.

Frequently Asked Questions