Predictions market platform Kalshi Inc. is boosting its commodities offerings with new contracts for everything from corn and coffee to diesel and natural gas as the war in Iran attracts more traders to the betting trend.
The company said commodities markets have “exploded both in volume and volatility” over the past year as political uncertainty prompts investors to use prediction markets alongside traditional hedging tools such as futures and options.
Prediction markets — where people bet against each other on the outcomes of real-world events — have seen a rapid rise in popularity. The platforms have made it possible to wager on anything from sports to elections and even the weather. Kalshi last month secured a license allowing it to offer margin trading, a feature that would make it more appealing to sophisticated institutional investors.
Kalshi’s new commodities hub tied to the world’s most important physical markets is a “significant expansion of the breadth of commodities listed on the platform,” the company said in a Wednesday statement.
New contracts for soybeans, wheat, sugar, copper, nickel and lithium will be added alongside existing markets for oil, gold and silver, Kalshi said. The company said they provide access to markets that historically were capital-intensive and often limited to institutions.
Kalshi’s existing contracts appear to be catching on as well. The most-popular contract tied to oil and gas — a wager tracking where the price of a barrel will end up on Friday — has attracted around $1.3 million in trading volume so far this week.
The move comes as the US and Iran considered an extension to a two-week ceasefire — an easing a tensions that has helped to moderate oil prices. Traders remain on edge with the Strait of Hormuz still largely shuttered, halting cargoes of fuel and fertilizer.
“Uncertain times call for more stringent risk management, and commodities markets sit at the heart of many of the world’s most important supply chains,” Kalshi said in the statement.
