Signals
Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
New ATH: 332,230 Wallets Now Hold 10,000+ XRP As Price Remains Flat
Although the price of XRP has been moving flat recently, on-chain data shows that whales have been buying this coin behind the scenes. Notably, there are now 332,230 wallets that hold over 10,000 XRP coins. This is a new ATH for XRP. Not only that, this milestone is
Bitcoin ETFs Add $467M in a Single Day as BTC Reclaims the $81,000 Resistance Level - $85,000 Next?
On May 5, US spot Bitcoin ETFs gained $467.38 million in net inflows. This is the fourth day of net inflows and shows that the institutional interest in BTC is now rising. Amid all this, the price of BTC has been soaring. In fact, it went past the $81,
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates
Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein. Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday,
Polymarket Bets on Orban Loss Jump Further as Hungarians Vote
Crypto prediction market Polymarket is betting heavily on opposition leader Peter Magyar ousting Viktor Orban as Hungary’s next prime minister, with implied odds topping 80%.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
Can You Actually Model Elon's Tweeting? Two Tools Think So
Two new analytics tools help traders on Polymarket's weekly Elon Musk tweet markets move beyond speculation, though ultimately limited by the unpredictable nature of their human subject.
CFTC Forms New Task Force for Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets
The CFTC launched an Innovation Task Force covering crypto, AI, and prediction markets. Michael J. Passalacqua will lead the new unit under Chairman Michael S. Selig. The task force will work with the Innovation Advisory Committee and coordinate with agencies, including the SEC.
Georgia’s 50% Trap: Pricing Runoff Risk in the 2026 Ossoff Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Jon Ossoff can clear the state’s 50% threshold.
