Geopolitics
EU Avoids Trump's July 4 Tariff Deadline: Why "De-Escalation" Is the Wrong Read
A look at what the EU-US tariff deal actually locks in, why markets are reading it as de-escalation, and why the underlying trade risk hasn't gone away for the companies caught in the middle.
Deadly twin quakes are a gut punch to a Venezuelan economy already on its knees
The strongest earthquake hit Venezuela in a century, at the worst possible moment for the country's fragile political transition. Will U.S. emergency aid strengthen Venezuela’s post-Maduro government? YesResult50.00%NoResult50.00%2 PollsEnded June 25（CNN）- the disaster struck while acting President Delcy Rodríguez was
Gold slips as fresh US-Iran strikes boost oil, Fed rate-hike bets weigh...
June 29 (Reuters) - Gold slipped on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes pushed oil prices higher and revived a more uncomfortable market question: what if Middle East risk is no longer simply bullish for gold, but also hawkish for the Federal Reserve? Will gold recover to $5,000 this
U.S., Iran pause hostilities as Hormuz shipping resumes after weekend clashes
The U.S. and Iran agreed Sunday to pause hostilities and allow commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz freely, following a weekend of military exchanges that threatened to derail negotiations aimed at ending their conflict. Will A More Thorough Agreement be Reached Before the Expiry of Existing 60-
Reopening of Strait of Hormuz No Longer Equates to Normal Resumption
Following the June 17 signing at Versailles of the US and Iran memorandum of understanding, the market reaction was immediate: oil prices fell, Asian equities rallied, and traders began to price a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices fell over 4%, while Asian benchmarks surged, responding
Ukraine Peace Deal Odds: The Market May Be Misreading the Word "Deal"
Polymarket gives a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 only a 28% chance, but the market rules leave room for a ceasefire or roadmap. Is this enough for a repricing?
Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
The fragile reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces multifaceted challenges, from mines and attacks to unclear authority, making a swift return to prewar energy flows slow and uncertain.
When Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Shock May Not Be Over
A peace deal can reopen Hormuz, but fuel markets, refinery bottlenecks and demand will take longer to normalize.
The Iran deal came just in time as Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to a 40-year low following massive releases to counter Iran war disruptions, heightening risks of a price spike.
Strait of Hormuz traffic to return to normal as soon as August, Kalshi traders speculate
Prediction markets show surging odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization after Trump's Iran deal announcement, despite lingering uncertainties.
US soldier pleads not guilty over prediction trades on Maduro capture
A US soldier's insider-trading case on Polymarket emerges as an early legal test for regulating the rapidly growing prediction markets.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
