Regulatory
Hong Kong Considers Longer Stock Trading Hours, Ending Lunch Break
Hong Kong’s stock exchange is considering an extension of equity trading hours to align with most global markets, including a proposal to eliminate the lunch break, according to people familiar with the matter.
Kalshi's Files Contracts for Airport Flight Cancellation Rate
Kalshi’s airport flight cancellation contracts reduce manipulation risk, but basis risk makes them a weak hedge for any one traveler.
Are Weather Delay Contracts About the Weather or the Officials?
Kalshi’s weather-delay markets reveal a grey area between weather forecasting, sports betting and official discretion.
Polymarket Is Back in the U.S. But the Bigger Story Is What Comes Next
For more than three years, Polymarket operated outside the U.S. after settling charges with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in early 2022. It changed when Polymarket acquired CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse QCX, giving it a legal pathway back into the American market. Since then, Polymarket
The Bonds Hidden Inside Prediction Markets
Prediction markets start as probability markets. Near certainty, some of them quietly become more like bond markets.
Insight of the Rebuild: Venezuela’s Economic Recovery vs. Global Capital Constraints
Why people focus on a V-shaped Venezuelan oil recovery are mispricing global liquidity, crowding-out effects, and Big Tech’s capital monopoly.
Spotify Verifies Streaming Manipulation After Malcolm Todd’s Suspicious Numbers
A Kalshi-Spotify incident shows how settlement based on the first print can reward temporary manipulation.
Fable 5 Shutdown Was Never About the Jailbreak
On June 9, Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, an AI model that comfortably beat OpenAI’s GPT 5.5 on agentic-coding benchmarks by more than twenty points. However, the revolutionary model’s shelf life was only fleeting! At around 5:21 p.m, eastern time, Friday, June 12, the
CFTC sues Kentucky over actions against prediction markets, making it first red state to face federal scrutiny
The CFTC's suit against Kentucky underscores a growing federal-state clash over regulating prediction markets as swaps versus gambling.
Cboe Revives Binary Options to Compete with Kalshi, Polymarket
Cboe reenters prediction markets with binary options, targeting retail traders after success of its short-dated contracts.
We Investigated Polymarket’s Deceptive Marketing Campaign. Here’s What We Found.
Polymarket, banned in the U.S., employs deceptive social media campaigns to attract American users, risking regulatory scrutiny.
US Traders’ Access to Foreign Platforms Draws Scrutiny From CFTC
The US derivatives regulator is launching its first formal review of foreign trading platforms since 2008 to assess risk management and may require some to register.
