In 2026, A24 proved it could manufacture a phenomenon. Backrooms, made for $10 million by a 20-year-old YouTube director, became the studio's highest-grossing release ever, driven by an existing online fanbase rather than a traditional marketing budget. Primetime, also distributed by A24, takes the completely opposite path — it lacks any internet-native community foundation, instead relying on an A-list star and a real television IP. The question this raises isn't whether A24 can replicate the Backrooms formula, but whether its more conventional "star-driven" playbook can deliver comparable results in the true crime genre.
The Film Itself
As one of the few projects in A24's second-half slate led by an A-list star who is also producing, Primetime is directed by Lance Oppenheim, with Robert Pattinson starring and serving as producer. The film is adapted from Dateline NBC's To Catch a Predator and the experiences of its host, Chris Hansen, and is set for release in September 2026. It tells the story of Hansen's pursuit of ratings peaks on the program, which centered on "hunting child predators." The film focuses on Hansen's hidden-camera sting operations and his direct confrontations with the adult men who were caught in them.
Pattinson's Box Office Range: Commercial Peak, Art-House Floor
Pattinson's commercial ceiling sits at roughly $772 million with The Batman, while Tenet contributed $365 million. On the independent/art-house side, his first collaboration with A24, The Lighthouse, grossed $18.3 million on an $11 million budget — illustrating Pattinson's dual commercial-and-arthouse identity. This range also points to a broader pattern: when the IP itself is strong enough, Pattinson can anchor films in the hundreds-of-millions range; but in smaller, director-driven projects, his individual pull rarely moves the needle on its own — box office in that category depends more on the script and the director's reputation than on star power.
The Historical Ceiling of True Crime
The genre Primetime belongs to has a mixed track record. Zodiac, despite an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, grossed only $84.7 million worldwide, barely covering its costs. The Revenant significantly outperformed comparable true-crime-adjacent titles, but largely due to Leonardo DiCaprio's box office momentum at the time, layered on top of Alejandro González Iñárritu's directorial brand. Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile was distributed mainly through Netflix and never received a wide theatrical release. Taken together, these cases suggest true crime as a subject is not, by itself, a box office guarantee — it typically requires an additional driver, such as a star or an auteur director, to break through the genre's inherent ceiling.
The Show Itself: A Quantifiable Built-In Advantage
According to Nielsen data, To Catch a Predator averaged more than 7 million viewers between 2004 and 2007, lifting Dateline's overall ratings by 13%. Its influence extended well beyond viewership numbers — the show became recurring material referenced by mainstream comedy programs like The Simpsons and South Park, evidence that its impact had already expanded from news audiences into the broader pop-culture landscape. The show was canceled in 2007 following a tragedy tied to one sting operation and the lawsuits that followed — itself a source of built-in dramatic tension for the film. Notably, a documentary examining the show's rise and controversial history already aired earlier in 2026, indicating the market had already shown interest in the topic. Unlike Zodiac and similar true crime films based on fictionalized or historical cases, To Catch a Predator carries quantifiable historical ratings data and nearly two decades of continued cultural presence — a concrete, verifiable positive variable in assessing whether Primetime can break through true crime's usual box office ceiling. Whether that presence converts into ticket sales, however, remains to be seen.
A24's Own Benchmark
Rather than comparing Primetime to Backrooms, a more appropriate reference point is A24's own historical performance: Materialists currently ranks fifth on A24's all-time global box office chart, with $107.9 million. If Primetime reaches or exceeds this figure, it would suggest that star-driven films can still produce top-tier commercial results within A24's system; if it falls short, it would suggest that even with A-list casting, A24's non-franchise, auteur-driven titles still face a ceiling of their own.
