Prediction Market
Kalshi Commodities Hit $400mn Monthly Volume, as It Files for WTI Perpetual Futures
Kalshi’s commodities trading volume has topped $400mn a month, more than four times crypto’s pace at the same stage, as the platform files for WTI perpetual futures and expands further into regulated derivatives.
A Fake Poll Became a Real Market Price
Prediction markets can aggregate information quickly. A fake LA mayoral poll showed why verifying that information is a different problem.
FlightAware Sues Kalshi for Unauthorized Use of Its Name and Data
Kalshi named FlightAware as its primary settlement source of its flight-cancellation event contracts. But FlightAware said no.
Operational Updates - Robinhood Prediction Markets Outpace Stock Revenue
Robinhood’s prediction market business has now overtaken stock trading revenue, after previously surpassing cryptocurrency trading.
Giants-Angels Score Correction Caused Bonding Bot Losses on Kalshi
A scoring correction turned an 8-6 Giants win into 7-6, exposing bonding bot activities and inconsistent settlements.
Trump's Teleprompter Operator Faces Probe Over Kalshi Mention Market Trades
A White House teleprompter operator allegedly turned advance access to Trump’s speeches into a six-figure prediction-market edge.
Are Prediction Markets Becoming the New Election Dashboard?
Reuters(July 22) - Kalshi has launched a dedicated U.S. midterm election hub combining real time prediction market prices with polling averages, campaign fundraising, historical results, and political analysis. Will prediction market becomes a standard feature of major election dashboards by Dec. 2026? YESResult46.83%NOResult53.17%489 PollsEndedTBD Notes
Financial Forecasts - Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue to Top Crypto (July 2026)
Trading platform Robinhood Markets Inc.’s revenue from prediction market is set to overshadow that from cryptocurrency trading, starting as soon as the second quarter, analysts at Bernstein and Piper Sandler said this week.
Kalshi's Files Contracts for Airport Flight Cancellation Rate
Kalshi’s airport flight cancellation contracts reduce manipulation risk, but basis risk makes them a weak hedge for any one traveler.
Polymarket Is Back in the U.S. But the Bigger Story Is What Comes Next
For more than three years, Polymarket operated outside the U.S. after settling charges with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in early 2022. It changed when Polymarket acquired CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse QCX, giving it a legal pathway back into the American market. Since then, Polymarket
The Bonds Hidden Inside Prediction Markets
Prediction markets start as probability markets. Near certainty, some of them quietly become more like bond markets.
In Japan, A New Type of Prediction Market is Taking Advantages of the Loophole in Gambling Regulations
From the rapidly developing point based prediction applications in Japan, we can see the demand for event forecasting is spreading into Asia. The business model is rely on the loyalty points, regulatory arbitrage and advertising, which differs from the trading fee as commonly known. Will Japan formally regulate prediction markets
