I. Market Overview
Whether an artist can land a No. 1 on the Billboard 200 before the year closes out is a question drawing attention from both fans and the industry. Among the frontrunners, Stray Kids, Rod Wave, ENHYPEN, and KATSEYE have all confirmed or already completed new album releases, while others with equally strong chances of topping the chart—Beyoncé and Post Malone among them—have yet to confirm whether new material is even coming this year. Who releases first, and whether that release can actually reach No. 1, is what makes this year's race worth watching. Market runs a related market tracking this question: as of now, six artists—Stray Kids, Rod Wave, ENHYPEN, KATSEYE, Beyoncé, and Post Malone—are drawing the most attention.
Among the four artists with confirmed release dates, who will be the first to reach No. 1 on the Billboard 200 between now and year-end?
II. Who's Most Likely: Where Each Artist StandsFour with confirmed release dates
Stray Kids released THIS & THAT on August 7, projected at 335,000 first-week units; all eight of their prior albums debuted at No. 1, and a ninth straight chart-topper is on the line. Rod Wave's Don't Look Down arrives August 28; he's hit No. 1 three times, but his 2024 album Last Lap broke that streak, debuting at No. 2 with 127,000 units against a rival's 161,000. ENHYPEN's THE SIN: BLISS drops August 21; their career-best chart position is a No. 2 with ROMANCE: UNTOLD, 124,000 units —they've never actually reached No. 1. KATSEYE's Wild is out today, August 14; their last release was their first to even crack the top 10.
Two without confirmed dates
Post Malone named his album The Eternal Buzz in April and called it "99% done" in June, recently performing its lead single at the World Cup closing ceremony—the most advanced of the undated candidates, but still no release date. Beyoncé only has Levi's ad hinting at a "rock" direction; her team has denied release rumors, and "Act III" has no official confirmation.
