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Brazil’s stock exchange B3 SA is moving into prediction markets with a set of contracts tied to key local assets and economic indicators. It is also considering offering election-linked products, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The exchange has sought a legal opinion on whether Brazil’s legislation imposes any restrictions on event contracts tied to elections, one of the people said. Both requested anonymity because the discussions are private. B3 didn’t comment specifically on election-linked contracts when asked about its plans.
Election-linked contracts could be available in time for Brazil’s presidential vote in October. The race between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is expected to be tight, with opinion polls showing Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son tying or surpassing Lula in a potential runoff.
B3 has so far confirmed it will launch six new contracts on April 27 linked to the Ibovespa equity index, the Brazilian real and Bitcoin.
“We have been monitoring the evolution of prediction markets abroad in order to bring new event contracts to Brazil,” Luiz Masagao, B3’s vice president of products and clients, said in a statement about the six contracts being launched this month. “These products are designed to provide a simplified trading experience while preserving B3’s high standards.”
The contracts have been authorized by Brazil’s securities regulator, known as CVM, initially for trading exclusively by professional investors — those with more than 10 million reais ($1.9 million) in assets or holding a technical certification issued by the regulator.
Brazil still lacks a specific regulatory framework for prediction markets. International platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi offer products related to the country, though they are traded abroad. Kalshi has also partnered with XP Inc. to offer yes-or-no contracts tied to Brazilian economic indicators, including inflation and interest-rate changes.
