VarietyAwards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Varietychief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change in response to buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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HBO Max
Primetime Emmys Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: July 24, 2026): With the Television Academy officially revealing this year’s Emmy nominees, attention turns not only to who’s in the running but to which episodes the actors are submitting. Though the Emmys have increasingly become dominated by buzz and momentum, official episode submissions can still play a critical role. But as full-season sweeps have become more common, it’s worth asking: Does the individual episode carry the weight it once did?
That question will occupy strategists and pundits over the next few weeks. Only a handful of categories have published their selections, which you can find on each category page.
Supporting comedy actress offers the early intrigue, with two sets of double-dippers: Hannah Einbinder and Megan Stalter of the HBO Max comedy “Hacks,” and Dale Dickey and Kate O’Flynn of the Apple TV comedy “Widow’s Bay.” Dickey and O’Flynn chose the same episode, “Beach Games,” which is inarguably a showcase for O’Flynn. With the May 31 cutoff, Dickey was unable to submit what many would have assumed was the no-brainer, “Emergency Shelter,” in which Rosemary delivers a hilarious slide presentation tracing the lineage of the curse plaguing the town.
Einbinder, like lead actress co-star Jean Smart, selected the series finale. Stalter went with “QuikScribbl,” the episode that strips Kayla of her Porsche, her trust fund and her office space. Supporting comedy actor nominee Paul W. Downs submitted the same half-hour.
Lead comedy actress has its full slate up for viewing. Smart’s “Hacks (Finale)” is the closing statement of a four-time winner. Quinta Brunson opted for “Night Out” from the ABC mockumentary “Abbott Elementary,” Ayo Edebiri chose “Worms” from FX’s “The Bear,” and Elle Fanning submitted “Lock and Load” from the Apple TV freshman comedy “Margo’s Got Money Troubles.” Lisa Kudrow, back in the fold for the HBO Max comedy “The Comeback,” went with “Valerie Faces Reality,” an ideal showcase for a performance that could spoil Smart’s night.
Supporting drama actor is a more revealing exercise, in part because “The Pitt” landed three nominees and all three chose differently. Patrick Ball submitted “8:00 P.M.,” when Langdon gets his confidence back. Shawn Hatosy took the season finale, “9:00 P.M.” Gerran Howell went with “7:00 P.M.,” in which Whitaker gives a pep talk to Ogilvie in the ambulance. The staggered approach keeps the trio from cannibalizing one another on the same hour of the shift, but with a cast this sprawling, will it work?
Tom Pelphrey, a possible front-runner for the HBO Max drama “Task,” is submitting “Vagrants,” the episode where Robbie takes Tom hostage. Elsewhere, two-time Emmy winner Billy Crudup, the sole nominee for the penultimate season of Apple TV’s “The Morning Show,” chose “The Parent Trap.” Also from Apple TV, Jack Lowden went with “Circus” from “Slow Horses,” while Carlos-Manuel Vesga selected “The Gap” from “Pluribus.”
Only two of the top series nominees have chosen their six episodes for consideration: HBO Max’s “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” and Apple TV’s “Slow Horses.”
Final-round voting runs Aug. 17-26 ahead of the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6. The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards will air Sept. 14 on NBC.
Top series Leaderboard: “Widow’s Bay” (11); “The Pitt” (7); “The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny” and “Beef” (6); “Love on the Spectrum” and “Wednesday” (4); “DTF St. Louis,” “Hacks,” “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert,” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” “Spider-Noir” and “Survivor” (3)
Top Networks Leaderboard: HBO Max (28); Netflix (25); Apple TV (16); NBC (9); ABC and Prime Video (7); CBS and Comedy Central (6); FX (5); Disney+ (3); National Geographic (2)
****** = PREDICTED WINNER***
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Drama Series
Image Credit: Apple TV
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) *********
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“Your Friends and Neighbors” (Apple TV)
Comedy Series
Image Credit: Apple TV
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Hacks” (HBO Max)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)
“Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV) *********
Limited or Anthology Series
Image Credit: Peacock
“All Her Fault” (Peacock)
“The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
“Beef” (Netflix) *********
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)
Outstanding Movie
Image Credit: Netflix
“Heads of State” (Prime Video)
“Miss You, Love You” (HBO Max)
“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix) *********
“People We Meet on Vacation” (Netflix)
“Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan: Ghost War” (Prime Video)
Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Max
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) *****
Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Disney+
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Steve Carell, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV) *****
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Lead Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix
Riz Ahmed, “Bait” (Prime Video)
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix) *****
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Max
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)
Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) *********
Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Lead Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Apple TV
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” (FX)
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) *********
Lead Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: FX
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Sally Field, “Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix) *********
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
