Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Casting Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026):Francine Maisler on track to become the first-ever winner for Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners”
The Academy Awards are introducing the Oscar for best casting this year, which means there’s no historical precedent to guide predictions.
One of the only indicators we have so far is the 41st annual Casting Society Artios Awards, where Francine Maisler took home the prize for Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.” Maisler shared the evening’s spotlight with Nina Gold and Douglas Aibel, who won for their work on “Jay Kelly” from the comedy category.
The Artios Awards are far from a perfect predictor, but in the absence of historical trends, they offer one of the few tangible signals for where the industry may be leaning.
Interestingly, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” widely seen as the frontrunning-awards-season contender, missed out at the Artios — the only guild recognition the film failed to secure during the season.
With limited data points to analyze, the category remains largely speculative. Still, Maisler’s early win suggests she could be well positioned to make history as the first casting director to take home the Oscar in the category’s inaugural year.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
