June 29 (Reuters) - Gold slipped on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes pushed oil prices higher and revived a more uncomfortable market question: what if Middle East risk is no longer simply bullish for gold, but also hawkish for the Federal Reserve?
Will gold recover to $5,000 this year?
Source：TradingView
Spot gold fell as traders weighed two forces that usually point in different directions. On one side, military escalation in the Gulf increases safe-haven demand. On the other side, higher oil prices can feed inflation expectations, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates and easier for markets to price more hikes. For a non-yielding asset like gold, that second channel matters.
This is why the latest move is more interesting than a normal gold pullback.
In a cleaner geopolitical shock, gold often benefits from fear. But the U.S.-Iran conflict is now being priced through oil, inflation, and interest rates at the same time. If crude stays elevated, the market may worry that energy-driven inflation keeps monetary policy tighter for longer. That can offset gold’s safe-haven appeal, especially when the dollar and real yields remain firm.
June 29（Reuters ）reported that investors are also watching this week’s U.S. ADP employment data and non-farm payrolls report for further clues on the Fed’s next move. That makes the gold trade less about one headline from the Gulf and more about whether the conflict changes the inflation path.
Gold may need more than geopolitical fear to regain upside momentum. A move back toward $5,000 would likely require a cleaner combination of de-escalation, lower oil, a softer dollar, and weaker U.S. labor data. Without that, the same conflict that creates safe-haven demand could also keep rate-hike risk alive.
Source:
- Gold slips as fresh US-Iran strikes boost oil, Fed rate-hike bets weigh, June 29, 2026 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fresh-us-iran-strikes-boost-oil-fed-rate-hike-bets-weigh-2026-06-29/
