Polymarket has appointed a representative in Japan and is preparing to lobby for the authorization of prediction markets in the country, according to people familiar with the matter.
The global prediction market platform is aiming for government approval in Japan by 2030, the people said, asking not to be named as the plans aren’t public. Polymarket sees Japan as a large untapped business opportunity, they said.
Mike Eidlin is leading Polymarket’s Japan efforts, according to the people. Eidlin has been working as head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter, according to his LinkedIn profile. He declined to comment on whether he is working with Polymarket.
Polymarket declined to comment on its activities in Japan. A representative for Japan’s justice ministry declined to comment on whether it has been in contact with Polymarket.
Polymarket enables users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events, such as elections, using cryptocurrencies. The company has thus far steered clear of promoting its services in Japan due to the country’s strict gambling restrictions.
The New York-headquartered firm currently blocks Japan-based users from placing bets on its website and app due to “regulatory requirements,” according to its geographic restrictions list.
Its Japan push comes as the company is under increasing pressure to expand its user base amid legal scrutiny in the US and rising competition from Kalshi Inc. and other rivals. Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume on its offshore exchange and US app totaled $10.3 billion in April, a 9% decline from the month before.
Gambling has long occupied a legal gray area in Japan, with the nation’s Penal Code stating that habitual gambling is subject to punishment of up to three years in jail, while those running gambling businesses can be incarcerated for as long as five years. There are some regulated exceptions, including government-authorized horse racing and the public lottery.
A justice ministry representative declined to comment on the legality of prediction markets in Japan, adding that individual cases will be examined in light of the Penal Code.
Regarding its outlook for the Japanese market, a Polymarket spokesperson said it has seen “meaningful organic interest from users” in the country and across Asia. “We’re always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways,” the spokesperson said.
Polymarket’s Japanese X account has more than 53,000 followers. The company plans to grow its presence in Japan by sharing news on social media while waiting for government approval, according to the people familiar with its plans.
While Japan heavily restricts cash gambling, it is home to the pachinko industry, in which users can win prizes from arcade-style pinball machines and other games. Pachinko operators do not offer cash payouts but players can convert prizes into real-money winnings at separate shops, thus skirting the gambling ban. Japan’s pachinko and slot machine market was worth around ¥16 trillion ($100 billion) as of 2024, according to data from the Japan Productivity Center.
Japan strengthened regulations against online gambling in 2025, prohibiting the domestic establishment and operation of online casinos. Nevertheless, the country is set to open its first casino resort, MGM Osaka, in 2030 after years of delays. The resort will operate under tight restrictions, including limits on floor space and steep entrance fees to discourage addiction.
