Polymarket is taking steps to try to bring its main exchange back to the US, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially supercharging an already fast-growing industry by letting Americans access the platform.
Since running afoul of regulators in 2022, Polymarket has technically banned Americans from trading on its international platform while a US-based alternative started by the company has failed to fully launch. In recent weeks though, the company has discussed lifting the prohibition on US-based customers with officials at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, some of people said, asking for anonymity to discuss non-public information.
Shayne Coplan, chief executive officer of Polymarket, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
It is unclear whether the CFTC will grant the request. Removing the prohibition would take a formal commission vote, a process made easier since four commission seats are vacant and only Chairman Michael Selig would have to act.
A top prediction market platform, Polymarket has faced a series of challenges in the US after reaching a settlement with the CFTC in 2022 that pushed the exchange overseas. That has led the company to fall behind rival Kalshi after the Trump administration embraced the industry.
The president’s family has also entered the space, with Donald Trump Jr. advising both Polymarket and Kalshi. He also invested in Polymarket through the venture fund 1789 Capital, where he’s a partner. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., the president’s social media company, also plans to launch a prediction market of its own.
Polymarket declined to comment. A spokesperson for the CFTC didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Although US traders are banned from the main exchange, some have found ways to circumvent the prohibition. The CFTC and Justice Department last week accused US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket’s international exchange, which authorities said he accessed via a virtual private network. Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan said the firm referred the suspicious trading to authorities.
The indictment outlined that Van Dyke did little to cover his tracks and left breadcrumbs that made it easy for investigators to pinpoint his identity.
Selig has previously indicated an interest in bringing more prediction market trading under the agency’s oversight.
“To the extent that there are products available that are taking liquidity out of the United States, we’re going to make sure that we bring that back here into the United States under comprehensive regulation,” Selig said in April 16 testimony before the House Agriculture Committee, which oversees the agency.
There is uncertainty around what would happen with Polymarket’s federally-regulated exchange, Polymarket US, if the CFTC were to approve the firm’s plans for the primary platform. The US exchange, which is not crypto-native, is still in beta mode with little trading. Its current focus is primarily on sports markets, though it has signaled plans to expands its offerings with climate, crypto and election-related bets.
Some of the discussions with the regulator include the prospect of trying to merge the primary exchange’s operations and blockchain-based technology with the domestic exchange’s licenses, and operating with trading solely on the blockchain-based platform, some of the people said.
