Results Deep Dive - Maersk Raises 2026 Guidance Again as Ocean Rates Drive a Strong Q2

Maersk delivered a strong Q2 2026, as higher Ocean freight rates, volume growth and lower unit costs drove a sharp recovery in earnings. Revenue rose 20.0% yoy to $15.76bn, while reported EBITDA increased 30.2% to $2.99bn. Reported EBIT climbed 85.9% to $1.57bn, taking the EBIT margin to 10.0%, and net profit more than doubled to $1.31bn.

Note: Prior corresponding period figures in brackets. Source: Maersk

The most important incremental information was another substantial increase in Maersk’s FY2026 guidance, just weeks after the company upgraded its outlook in late June. The new guidance suggests that management expects the stronger rate environment and operating performance to remain supportive through H2, although the durability of current freight rates remains the central debate.

Key Takeaways

• Ocean was the main earnings driver, supported by both pricing and execution. Ocean revenue reached $10.53bn, with EBITDA of $2.04bn and EBIT of $940mn. Loaded volumes increased 4.1% yoy to 3.36mn FFE, while the average freight rate rose 21.6% to $2,746/FFE. At the same time, unit costs declined 2.2% to $2,355/FFE. The combination of higher rates, growing volumes and lower costs produced significant operating leverage.

Note: Maersk's Ocean Segment Earning. Source: Maersk

• Q2 represented a clear acceleration from a weak start to the year. H1 revenue increased 8.6% yoy to $28.73bn, but EBITDA declined 5.3% to $4.74bn and EBIT fell 8.9% to $1.91bn. Net profit decreased 23.5% to $1.41bn. The contrast between the strong Q2 performance and declining H1 earnings shows how quickly Maersk’s profitability improved as freight rates recovered.

• Logistics continued to improve, although margins remain modest. Logistics revenue reached $4.22bn, with EBITDA of $470mn and EBIT of $220mn. The EBIT margin increased 50bps qoq to 5.1%, supported by Landside services, air freight, project logistics and a better contract mix. Further margin expansion would reduce the group’s reliance on volatile Ocean earnings.

Note: Maersk's Logisticcs Segment Earning. Source: Maersk

• Terminals remained a stable source of profit. Revenue reached $1.45bn, EBITDA was $520mn and EBIT was $460mn, while volumes grew 2.2% yoy. The strong profitability on relatively modest volume growth highlights the segment’s role as a more predictable earnings contributor.

Note: Maersk's Terminal Segment Earning. Source: Maersk

• Guidance was raised by an unusually wide margin. Maersk now expects FY2026 underlying EBITDA of $10.5–12.5bn, up from $8–10bn, and underlying EBIT of $4.5–6.5bn, up from $2–4bn. The midpoint of both ranges increased by $2.5bn. Free-cash-flow guidance improved to above zero from at least negative $1.5bn. As the global container-market growth assumption remained unchanged at ~4%, the upgrade appears to reflect stronger rates, business mix and execution rather than a higher industry volume forecast.

Key Debates

1. Can elevated Ocean rates persist beyond the peak shipping season?
2. How much demand was brought forward?
3. Can free cash flow remain positive despite heavy investment?
4. Can Logistics sustain its margin improvement?

Source:

1. Company press release; https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/08/13/maersk-delivers-strong-q2-and-raises-full-year-guidance