I. Deal Overview
Warner Bros.' The End of Oak Street, directed by David Robert Mitchell and starring Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor, opens in North America on August 14 with a net production budget of $80 million. The PG-13 sci-fi survival film, about a suburban neighborhood transported into a prehistoric world, serves as the studio's closing entry for the summer blockbuster season. Both Kalshi and Polymarket already host active prediction markets tied to the film.
Mitchell has never directed a studio film at this budget scale. His earlier work — including It Follows and Under the Silver Lake — was made on independent, art-house budgets, with box office totals topping out around $10 million. This marks his first time helming a mainstream commercial release north of $80 million.
Box office expectations rest heavily on Hathaway. Her 2026 slate, including The Odyssey and The Devil Wears Prada 2, has pushed her annual box office total past $1.5 billion, but her smaller-scale genre film Mother Mary underperformed. By comparison, co-star Ewan McGregor, previously in films like Trainspotting, has been known more for his strengths as a critically-praised, character-driven actor.
What will The End of Oak Street's North American opening weekend gross be?
II. Comparable Titles — Similar in Type or Scale, but Not a Clean Match
None of the comparison titles cited here fully align with The End of Oak Street across genre, rating, and budget, so each needs to be weighed on its own terms. The Meg, which opened to $45.5 million, shares its creature-survival premise and PG-13 rating with this film, but cost well over $100 million and leaned heavily on the Chinese box office — a scale roughly one tier above Oak Street's $80 million.
Weapons, which opened to $43.5 million, shares Warner Bros. as distributor, the August release slot, and a track record as an original film succeeding without pre-existing IP — but it differs from this film in genre, rating, and budget. 65, which opened to $12.3 million, is the closest match to this film on genre, rating, and original-IP status, though it carried a smaller budget and released in March rather than during the summer.
Of the three, 65 is the closest analog and carries the most weight as a reference point; The Meg mainly points to a genre ceiling, while Weapons offers a read on release strategy rather than a comparison on genre or budget. Should Oak Street land near or below 65's opening, that would read as a pessimistic outcome relative to expectations.
III. Latest Variables: Mixed Signals, and Disagreement Among Forecasts
Several variables point in different directions.
On the downside, Warner Bros. drew criticism on August 9-10 over its use of generative AI in the film's marketing. IMAX screens remain tied up by Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey. Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie opens the same day — and while the two target different core audiences, with Oak Street an adult-skewing original thriller and PAW Patrol a family-friendly franchise entry, the shared dinosaur subject matter could still divide attention and scheduling in family viewing slots. Separately, World of Reel, an individual critic's channel, has suggested the film's current trajectory points to an opening as low as $15 million, attributing the shortfall to insufficient studio marketing support.
On the upside, Quorum's tracking data has been revised upward for two straight reports, with unaided awareness climbing from 19% to 32% and definite interest rising from 36% to 44%. Early social reactions from press screenings have also been positive.
The source of uncertainty lies in the fact that industry forecasts themselves disagree considerably. Deadline's latest official tracking remains conservative, holding at $20-25 million. Boxoffice Pro's long-range model expects the film to land below Weapons' $43.5 million, without offering a precise range. SlashFilm, citing Box Office Theory, puts the figure at $30-45 million — currently the most optimistic industry-level estimate. The gap between these sources exceeds 100%, reflecting a considerable degree of predictive suspense.
One signal worth treating with caution: strong early social media buzz doesn't reliably predict outcomes. Last year's The Running Man saw similarly enthusiastic social reactions before its formal review scores came in far more mixed. This film's Rotten Tomatoes embargo lifted on August 12, and no score has been posted yet.
IV. Reading the Range: What Each Prediction Tier Reflects
Each of the three prediction tiers below maps to a specific reference point. Under $25 million corresponds to Deadline's most recent — and most conservative — official tracking figure. The $25-35 million range sits close to Rampage's historical opening of $35.7 million, and aligns with Boxoffice Pro's middle-ground read that the film could approach Weapons' level, though the director's inexperience at this scale may temper that outcome. Above $35 million corresponds to the upper end of Box Office Theory's estimate, as well as the historical openings of The Meg and Weapons — both generally regarded as the ceiling for films of this type.
