The White House is reviewing a new US Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposal that would lay out guidelines for event contracts, the agency’s latest move to mark its turf as it battles with states over who gets to regulate the exploding prediction markets.
The plan is under review by the Office of Management and Budget, according to a notice posted on a US government website. The notice includes no details about what’s in the proposal, which would be subject to public comment.
A CFTC spokesperson wouldn’t elaborate on the contents, adding the agency “will have more to say once that process is complete.”
Any plan is expected to build off feedback received this spring after the agency issued a document that asked the public to answer numerous questions about regulating the space, including how to handle insider trading and whether to prohibit certain types of event contracts. The agency received more than 3,000 responses.
Online platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to place yes-or-no trades on the outcomes of future events on a wide variety of topics, from who will win the French Open to whether President Donald Trump will get impeached this term. Questions such as those tied to impending military action and barely disguised wagers on assassinations have drawn objections, and there has been concern bettors might try to influence outcomes of events to make their wagers pay off.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has aggressively defended the agency’s jurisdiction over US-based exchanges, arguing the platforms technically trade derivatives that fall under the regulator’s turf. “We will see you in court,” he posted on X in February as a message to states trying to curb the firms and regulate them akin to gambling businesses.
The president himself weighed in on Tuesday in a Truth Social post, saying it was “critically important” that the CFTC has exclusive authority over the markets. “Thank you, Mike!” he said.
Trump’s family has entered the prediction market industry. His son, Donald Trump Jr., is an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. announced its own marketplace.
