George Santos has emerged as the latest flashpoint in the controversy over possible insider trading on prediction markets, as concerns become increasingly widespread about potential illicit bets on the platforms.
Alleged trading by Santos, a former congressman who was expelled from the US House in 2023, is being investigated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to a person familiar with the matter. The regulator is looking at wagers he placed on whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February.
Prediction markets — which allow customers to bet on just about anything — have surged over the past year and a half. That has prompted investigations by US authorities and led to two high-profile cases over alleged illicit wagers.
The probe into Santos’ trading stems from wagers made earlier this year, when users on Kalshi were placing bets on who would attend the State of the Union. Around the time, Santos said in a social media post that he was “going to be there,” but did not attend, writing in a follow-up post that watching the speech from an airport television “was not part of the plan.”
NPR, which reported earlier on Santos’ trades and the CFTC investigation, said the Justice Department is also probing the matter. A spokesperson for Kalshi declined to comment. Santos didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Probes by authorities can end without charges or enforcement actions being taken. Prediction markets are overseen in the US by the CFTC, which views the platforms as derivatives exchanges.
Kalshi and its chief rival Polymarket say they are opposed to insider trading and actively policing the markets. Kalshi has suspended and fined congressional hopefuls for betting on their own races in Minnesota, Texas and Virginia.
Polymarket has also referred cases to the authorities and two of their customers were charged earlier this year, including a Google software engineer accused of betting on search results and a US solder allegedly placing wagers about the ouster of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
In Washington, the White House warned employees that they are not allowed to trade on prediction markets using confidential information. Lawmakers have also proposed legislation aimed at cracking down on insider trading and the Senate banned its members and staff from trading on the platforms.
House Oversight Chairman James Comer has also launched an investigation into insider trading on prediction markets.
Once seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, Santos served in Congress for less than a year and was sentenced to serve more than seven years in April 2025 for stealing campaign funds.
President Donald Trump announced in October he was commuting Santos’ sentence, saying he “was somewhat of a ‘rogue,’ but there are many rogues throughout our Country that aren’t forced to serve seven years in prison.”
“Good luck George, have a great life!,” Trump said at the time.
