Trading platform Robinhood Markets Inc.’s revenue from prediction market is set to overshadow that from cryptocurrency trading, starting as soon as the second quarter, analysts at Bernstein and Piper Sandler said this week.
Bernstein expects Robinhood to grow prediction market revenue at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching $1.7 billion.
The Robinhood-linked Rothera exchange, a CFTC-licensed venue launched in late May, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since going live, with FIFA World Cup markets accounting for roughly 93% of that volume, according to the note.
Rothera has become the fourth-largest prediction venue by volume within a month of launch, Bernstein said, accounting for about 16% of Robinhood's total event-contract volumes, while the rest routes to Kalshi.
The firm sees the second quarter of 2026 as potentially the first in which prediction markets surpass crypto as a revenue line for Robinhood.
Bernstein models roughly $150 million in prediction market revenue for the quarter, up from about $104 million in the first quarter, while crypto trading volumes decline roughly 38% quarter over quarter.
Separately, Piper Sandler & Co. analyst Patrick Moley says his model reflects a similar view, with prediction market revenue outpacing crypto in the second quarter, as well as the remaining two quarters of the year.
Analysts over the past few months highlighted a shift toward prediction markets on exchanges like Robinhood, Coinbase Global Inc. and Gemini Space Station Inc. alongside a decline in crypto trading. That drop in crypto trades comes as Bitcoin’s price extended its slump to levels last seen in 2024. Meanwhile, the soccer World Cup has acted as a major catalyst that boosted investors’ interest in prediction markets.
