2 posts
Humanoids
How a Magnet Shortage Is Throttling Western Humanoid Ambitions
In April 2025, Elon Musk revealed that Optimus production had stalled over a magnet problem: Tesla was waiting on a Chinese export license for the rare-earth magnets that drive one of the robot's arm actuators. It was an unusually specific admission, and it pointed at a dependency
The Prediction Market Disconnect: What Optimus Contracts Are Actually Pricing
While Polymarket’s Optimus contracts may be priced accurately, the underlying reasons for these valuations are widely misunderstood. Ahead of the June 30 deadline, Polymarket’s contract on the likelihood of Tesla releasing Optimus sits at just 1%, while the consensus for the December 31 deadline is tilted slightly higher
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