Must Read
Is Anthropic “Tech”? Read the Fine Print Behind a Market
Anthropic looks obviously “tech,” but Kalshi’s sector market turns that assumption into a probability puzzle.
Reopening of Strait of Hormuz No Longer Equates to Normal Resumption
Following the June 17 signing at Versailles of the US and Iran memorandum of understanding, the market reaction was immediate: oil prices fell, Asian equities rallied, and traders began to price a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices fell over 4%, while Asian benchmarks surged, responding
What a Burnham Premiership Means for UK Stocks
A Burnham premiership would test UK equities through gilts, fiscal credibility and sector-specific policy risk.
The Prediction Market Disconnect: What Optimus Contracts Are Actually Pricing
While Polymarket’s Optimus contracts may be priced accurately, the underlying reasons for these valuations are widely misunderstood. Ahead of the June 30 deadline, Polymarket’s contract on the likelihood of Tesla releasing Optimus sits at just 1%, while the consensus for the December 31 deadline is tilted slightly higher
When Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Shock May Not Be Over
A peace deal can reopen Hormuz, but fuel markets, refinery bottlenecks and demand will take longer to normalize.
