Legal
Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi
Nevada’s ban on Kalshi’s sports and election contracts underscores an escalating clash between state gambling regulators and federal derivatives authorities.
Criminal Charges Amp Up Growing State Resistance to Kalshi
Prediction markets’ rapid growth has triggered a jurisdictional clash as state regulators and attorneys general escalate civil and criminal actions against platforms.
Polymarket Seeks Chief Risk Officer After Legal Hiring Spree
Prediction market platform Polymarket is beefing up risk and legal leadership to satisfy CFTC demands as it pushes deeper into regulated US business while rivals also professionalize.
SEC, CFTC Move to Define Which Digital Assets are Securities
US securities and derivatives regulators jointly issued long-awaited crypto asset guidance, narrowing what counts as a security and signaling they’ll move ahead without waiting for Congress.
Arizona Files Illegal-Gambling Charges Against Predictions Platform Kalshi
Arizona’s criminal case against Kalshi underscores an escalating jurisdictional clash between states and federal regulators.
Why Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are not just platforms for trading; they are real-time engines of collective intelligence. Unlike traditional static reports or polls, a prediction market is a continuous forecasting model where probabilities shift instantly as new information surfaces. When opinions are priced, the future stops being a guess and becomes
CFTC Offers First Guidance on Manipulation in Prediction Markets
CFTC moved slightly to tighten oversight of booming prediction markets, urging pre-launch consultation on risky contracts and launching rulemaking to assert its authority over sports and geopolitical bets.
Bets on Fate of Iran’s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets
Prediction markets face mounting political and regulatory scrutiny after lucrative bets on Iran’s Khamenei and U.S. strikes raised insider-trading and war-profiteering concerns.
Polymarket sues Massachusetts, claims states can’t regulate prediction markets
As Kalshi blocks Massachusetts users, Polymarket is escalating the battle to the federal court, claiming state gambling laws can't touch CFTC-regulated prediction markets.
Jump Trading Stakes Bets on Prediction Market Boom With Kalshi, Polymarket Deals
Major trading firm swaps liquidity provision for equity stakes as prediction platforms attract institutional capital
Kalshi Claims ‘Extortion,’ Then Recants in Feud Over User Losses
It began innocuously enough. A stock analyst pulled data on betting results to argue that users of booming prediction markets were losing money faster than on traditional gambling apps. Then it spiraled. Kalshi Inc., the biggest US prediction market, told Bloomberg the analysis wasn’t just wrong. It was part
CFTC to Craft New Prediction Market Rules, Chairman Says
Wall Street’s main derivatives regulator will write new rules for the multi-billion dollar prediction markets industry, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Thursday. “It is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets,” Chairman Michael Selig
