Polymarket Bets on Orban Loss Jump Further as Hungarians Vote
Crypto prediction market Polymarket is betting heavily on opposition leader Peter Magyar ousting Viktor Orban as Hungary’s next prime minister, with implied odds topping 80%.
Robinhood excludes some prediction markets over manipulation fears
Robinhood is aggressively expanding into prediction markets but is excluding riskier contracts such as “mention markets” amid mounting concerns over manipulation, insider trading and regulatory scrutiny.
Kalshi Wins Reprieve From Arizona Criminal Case at CFTC’s Urging
A federal judge temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against prediction market Kalshi after the CFTC argued state prosecutions unlawfully encroach on federal authority over derivatives markets.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming. Can They Improve Forecasts?
Weather-focused prediction markets are rapidly expanding from niche bets to tools for testing AI models and pricing climate risk, promising sharper forecasts but raising concerns over manipulation and social value.
Will Manon Perform With Katseye at Coachella?
Coachella kicks off today, and Katseye has a prime-time slot. The girl group is set to perform at 8 p.m. on Friday night just before headliner, Sabrina Carpenter. Earlier this week, they released a new single they’ll perform live for the first time at the festival. This
The big state gamble on prediction markets
Prediction markets such as Kalshi are forcing a high-stakes showdown between state gambling laws and the CFTC’s claim of exclusive federal oversight over event-based derivatives.
Singapore Minister Says Worst Case on War Not Fully Priced
Singapore warns that markets remain complacent about the Iran war’s impact as Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten Asia’s energy security, inflation, and growth.
Kalshi Win in New Jersey Fight Hailed as Big Victory Over States
A US appeals court ruling that Kalshi falls under CFTC oversight strengthens federal authority over fast-growing prediction markets, but a sharp dissent signals continuing state–federal clashes over gambling regulation.
Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
CFTC Sues Illinois Over State Effort to Limit Prediction Markets
The CFTC has sued Illinois officials to block state gambling enforcement against prediction markets, escalating a jurisdictional clash over who regulates the booming industry.
Federal Preemption or State Sovereignty? A Legal Analysis and Prospective Assessment of Kalshi v. Nevada
Kalshi and Nevada clash over jurisdiction—federal law vs. state gambling rules. It now comes down to how nine Supreme Court justices read the statute.
