Crude Oil
Gold slips as fresh US-Iran strikes boost oil, Fed rate-hike bets weigh...
June 29 (Reuters) - Gold slipped on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes pushed oil prices higher and revived a more uncomfortable market question: what if Middle East risk is no longer simply bullish for gold, but also hawkish for the Federal Reserve? Will gold recover to $5,000 this
Oil Is Pricing a Hormuz Reopening. The July Contract Needs Proof
Oil prices are already trading a Hormuz recovery, but Polymarket’s July market needs the PortWatch ship count to hit its settlement threshold before July 31.
Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
The fragile reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces multifaceted challenges, from mines and attacks to unclear authority, making a swift return to prewar energy flows slow and uncertain.
When Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Shock May Not Be Over
A peace deal can reopen Hormuz, but fuel markets, refinery bottlenecks and demand will take longer to normalize.
The Iran deal came just in time as Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to a 40-year low following massive releases to counter Iran war disruptions, heightening risks of a price spike.
China is helping to cushion global oil prices below $100 — but analysts warn it won’t last
China's crude import cuts have cushioned oil prices during the Iran war, yet analysts warn higher prices are needed to rebuild depleted inventories.
Massive Options Bet Rattles Oil Market On Edge Over Iran War
A massive, unexplained Brent crude options trade is amplifying market jitters and integrity concerns amid geopolitical volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
