Bennet Caldwell
Obsessed with the wisdom of crowds. Trying my hand at betting on event contracts. I spend my time debugging code, brewing coffee, and finding the edge in decentralized forecasting.
Energy Matrix - California Curtailed 4.5 Billion kWh of Green Electricity in Six Months. Why Is It Still Worried About Power Shortages?
45 billion kWh of solar and wind power was curtailed in six months. Why does California still worry about blackouts?
Giants-Angels Score Correction Caused Bonding Bot Losses on Kalshi
A scoring correction turned an 8-6 Giants win into 7-6, exposing bonding bot activities and inconsistent settlements.
Trump's Teleprompter Operator Faces Probe Over Kalshi Mention Market Trades
A White House teleprompter operator allegedly turned advance access to Trump’s speeches into a six-figure prediction-market edge.
Three Ways to Benchmark AfD Winning Exactly Two States
Three formulas, one market: benchmarking AfD’s chance of winning exactly two September state elections.
Kalshi's Files Contracts for Airport Flight Cancellation Rate
Kalshi’s airport flight cancellation contracts reduce manipulation risk, but basis risk makes them a weak hedge for any one traveler.
Are Weather Delay Contracts About the Weather or the Officials?
Kalshi’s weather-delay markets reveal a grey area between weather forecasting, sports betting and official discretion.
The Bonds Hidden Inside Prediction Markets
Prediction markets start as probability markets. Near certainty, some of them quietly become more like bond markets.
Spotify Verifies Streaming Manipulation After Malcolm Todd’s Suspicious Numbers
A Kalshi-Spotify incident shows how settlement based on the first print can reward temporary manipulation.
AI Speedrun - Is Anthropic “Tech”? Read the Fine Print Behind a Market
Anthropic looks obviously “tech,” but Kalshi’s sector market turns that assumption into a probability puzzle.
What a Burnham Premiership Means for UK Stocks
A Burnham premiership would test UK equities through gilts, fiscal credibility and sector-specific policy risk.
Global Chockpoint - When Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Shock May Not Be Over
A peace deal can reopen Hormuz, but fuel markets, refinery bottlenecks and demand will take longer to normalize.
An Abandoned Football Match and the Fragility of “Final Score”
One abandoned friendly football match became a test of how Polymarket and Kalshi handle messy real-world outcomes.
