Bennet Caldwell
Obsessed with the wisdom of crowds. Currently building a prediction market exchange. Trying my hand at betting on event contracts. I spend my time debugging code, brewing coffee, and finding the edge in decentralized forecasting.
Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
California’s Billionaire Tax Looks Strong - Until You Look Closer
Strong polls make California’s billionaire tax look tempting. But the market may still be overpricing how easily “Yes” survives November.
Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
Can You Actually Model Elon's Tweeting? Two Tools Think So
Two new analytics tools help traders on Polymarket's weekly Elon Musk tweet markets move beyond speculation, though ultimately limited by the unpredictable nature of their human subject.
Georgia’s 50% Trap: Pricing Runoff Risk in the 2026 Ossoff Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Jon Ossoff can clear the state’s 50% threshold.
