Bennet Caldwell
Obsessed with the wisdom of crowds. Trying my hand at betting on event contracts. I spend my time debugging code, brewing coffee, and finding the edge in decentralized forecasting.
Will Örebropartiet Enter the Swedish Parliament in 2026?
A 12% Local Breakthrough, or an Impossible Conversion from Local Support to a National Vote?
India's Sugar Is Competing With Gasoline for the Same Sugarcane
E20 did not cause this supply shock, but it determines how much inventory India still has to absorb it.
A Fake Poll Became a Real Market Price
Prediction markets can aggregate information quickly. A fake LA mayoral poll showed why verifying that information is a different problem.
Global Chokepoint - The Suez Canal Sells a Shortcut. Wars Are Repricing It
A canal need not close to lose traffic. Rising security costs can make sailing thousands of extra miles the cheaper option.
Global Chokepoint - Panama Canal Tightens Draft Limits as Water Levels Come Under Pressure
Falling water levels are tightening Panama Canal draft limits, raising transit prices.
FlightAware Sues Kalshi for Unauthorized Use of Its Name and Data
Kalshi named FlightAware as its primary settlement source of its flight-cancellation event contracts. But FlightAware said no.
Energy Matrix - California Curtailed 4.5 Billion kWh of Green Electricity in Six Months. Why Is It Still Worried About Power Shortages?
45 billion kWh of solar and wind power was curtailed in six months. Why does California still worry about blackouts?
Giants-Angels Score Correction Caused Bonding Bot Losses on Kalshi
A scoring correction turned an 8-6 Giants win into 7-6, exposing bonding bot activities and inconsistent settlements.
Trump's Teleprompter Operator Faces Probe Over Kalshi Mention Market Trades
A White House teleprompter operator allegedly turned advance access to Trump’s speeches into a six-figure prediction-market edge.
Three Ways to Benchmark AfD Winning Exactly Two States
Three formulas, one market: benchmarking AfD’s chance of winning exactly two September state elections.
Kalshi's Files Contracts for Airport Flight Cancellation Rate
Kalshi’s airport flight cancellation contracts reduce manipulation risk, but basis risk makes them a weak hedge for any one traveler.
Are Weather Delay Contracts About the Weather or the Officials?
Kalshi’s weather-delay markets reveal a grey area between weather forecasting, sports betting and official discretion.
