Inflation
Over The Weekend - Warsh Reopens the Hike Debate, as Washington Secures Venezuelan Oil and Hormuz Tensions Lift Brent
Warsh reopened the Fed hike debate as Washington secured long-term access to Venezuelan oil and tensions in Hormuz pushed Brent back above $90—putting rates, energy supply and inflation risk back at the center of markets.
Micro & Macro Compass - America Has A Duration Problem? How the AI Debt Boom Is Amplifying a Global Bond Selloff—and Testing the Dollar
America’s 30-year Treasury yield has reached its highest since 2007. This article explains how fiscal supply, global bond repricing and AI debt are lifting term premiums—and why Treasury buybacks have failed to stop the dollar from weakening.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Faces Close Call as Inflation Pressures Revive Rate-Hike Debate
Federal Reserve officials will enter this week’s policy meeting facing a renewed surge in price pressures, making the decision over whether to hold or raise interest rates unusually close — and potentially contentious.
Global Chokepoint - Hormuz Update - Vessel on fire, caution advised; Iran vows not a ‘single drop’ of oil or gas will pass strait - July 20, 2026
Another vessel allegedly under attack; Iran vows not a ‘single drop’ of oil or gas will pass strait of Hormuz as US carries out ninth night of strikes
Breaking News - US CPI Falls for the First Time Since 2020
US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years and a key gauge of underlying inflation was little changed, taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Rate-Hike Bets Mount Before Inflation Data, Warsh Testimony
Bond traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month, ahead of a closely watched US inflation report and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Oil Climbs as US Strikes Iran, Fueling Inflation and Rate Hike Bets
Oil rose and Treasuries fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, reviving concern that higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated and interest rates higher for longer.
Macro & Micro Compass - Federal Reserve Fed officials were split on direction of interest rates at last meeting, minutes show
Fed policymakers were split on the future of interest rates at their June meeting, with officials offering competing cases for hikes or cuts, according to minutes released Wednesday.
Reprint: The Latest EU Monetary Policy Decisions
ECB Raises Rates Again as Middle East War Rewrites Europe’s Inflation Outlook Brief Analysis The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on 11 June 2026, saying the war in the Middle East is generating new inflation pressure and creating uncertainty around the
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Leans Toward an Overheating US Economy, But the Stagflation Trade Is Not Dead Yet
Polymarket traders are leaning toward an overheating US economy in 2026. But sticky inflation, oil risk, and a small rise in unemployment could point to a more uncomfortable outcome.
Macro & Micro Compass - Nearly 40% chances of stagflation by end of 2026, traders say
Markets now see a 40% chance of stagflation versus just 21% for a soft landing, reflecting fading economic optimism.
Singapore Minister Says Worst Case on War Not Fully Priced
Singapore warns that markets remain complacent about the Iran war’s impact as Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten Asia’s energy security, inflation, and growth.
