Election
The AfD Won 43.8%. Now the Firewall Has to Govern
The AfD finished three seats short of control. Its opponents can still keep it out of government but only by crossing some of their own political red lines.
Will Örebropartiet Enter the Swedish Parliament in 2026?
A 12% Local Breakthrough, or an Impossible Conversion from Local Support to a National Vote?
Can Germany’s Firewall Survive a 42% AfD Vote?
The AfD holds a 20-point polling lead in Saxony-Anhalt. Yet the state’s next government may be decided by parties hovering around 5% and by what happens after the ballots are counted.
A Fake Poll Became a Real Market Price
Prediction markets can aggregate information quickly. A fake LA mayoral poll showed why verifying that information is a different problem.
Can Election Fraud Claims Become a Turnout Risk for Republicans?
Will election integrity messaging help or hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterms? Help more than it hurtsResult0.00%Hurt more than it helpsResult0.00%Have no significant effectResult0.00%0 PollsEndedTBD Election rules are moving from the background of U.S. politics to the center of the 2026 midterm campaign.
Are Prediction Markets Becoming the New Election Dashboard?
Reuters(July 22) - Kalshi has launched a dedicated U.S. midterm election hub combining real time prediction market prices with polling averages, campaign fundraising, historical results, and political analysis. Will prediction market becomes a standard feature of major election dashboards by Dec. 2026? YESResult46.83%NOResult53.17%489 PollsEndedTBD Notes
Three Ways to Benchmark AfD Winning Exactly Two States
Three formulas, one market: benchmarking AfD’s chance of winning exactly two September state elections.
Rules & Mandates - Deadly twin quakes are a gut punch to a Venezuelan economy already on its knees
The strongest earthquake hit Venezuela in a century, at the worst possible moment for the country's fragile political transition. Will U.S. emergency aid strengthen Venezuela’s post-Maduro government? YesResult75.00%NoResult25.00%4 PollsEndedTBD June 25（CNN）- the disaster struck while acting President Delcy Rodríguez was
Andy Burnham Is Priced In. But Will Labour Crown Him?
Brief Analysis Andy Burnham is not just the frontrunner to replace Keir Starmer. He is now being treated by both Labour insiders and prediction markets as the almost-certain Britain’s next prime minister. Reuters reported that Darren Jones, a key ally of Starmer, ruled himself out of the leadership
2026 Midterms: Is Polymarket Underpricing a Democratic Sweep?
A look at Polymarket’s 2026 midterm odds, the Democratic sweep market, and whether traders are underpricing Senate risk in a broader anti-GOP backlash.
Rules & Mandates - Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Let Candidates Place Bets on Themselves — at Least Sometimes
Prediction markets banning candidates from betting on their own races raises questions about whether such wagers truly threaten electoral integrity or merely signal confidence.
