Election
Can Election Fraud Claims Become a Turnout Risk for Republicans?
Will election integrity messaging help or hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterms? Help more than it hurtsResult0.00%Hurt more than it helpsResult0.00%Have no significant effectResult0.00%0 PollsEndedTBD Election rules are moving from the background of U.S. politics to the center of the 2026 midterm campaign.
Are Prediction Markets Becoming the New Election Dashboard?
Reuters(July 22) - Kalshi has launched a dedicated U.S. midterm election hub combining real time prediction market prices with polling averages, campaign fundraising, historical results, and political analysis. Will prediction market becomes a standard feature of major election dashboards by Dec. 2026? YESResult46.83%NOResult53.17%489 PollsEndedTBD Notes
Three Ways to Benchmark AfD Winning Exactly Two States
Three formulas, one market: benchmarking AfD’s chance of winning exactly two September state elections.
Rules & Mandates - Deadly twin quakes are a gut punch to a Venezuelan economy already on its knees
The strongest earthquake hit Venezuela in a century, at the worst possible moment for the country's fragile political transition. Will U.S. emergency aid strengthen Venezuela’s post-Maduro government? YesResult75.00%NoResult25.00%4 PollsEndedTBD June 25（CNN）- the disaster struck while acting President Delcy Rodríguez was
Andy Burnham Is Priced In. But Will Labour Crown Him?
Brief Analysis Andy Burnham is not just the frontrunner to replace Keir Starmer. He is now being treated by both Labour insiders and prediction markets as the almost-certain Britain’s next prime minister. Reuters reported that Darren Jones, a key ally of Starmer, ruled himself out of the leadership
2026 Midterms: Is Polymarket Underpricing a Democratic Sweep?
A look at Polymarket’s 2026 midterm odds, the Democratic sweep market, and whether traders are underpricing Senate risk in a broader anti-GOP backlash.
Rules & Mandates - Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Let Candidates Place Bets on Themselves — at Least Sometimes
Prediction markets banning candidates from betting on their own races raises questions about whether such wagers truly threaten electoral integrity or merely signal confidence.
Mandelson Vetting Fiasco Leaves Starmer Looking Like Lame Duck
Keir Starmer's authority is eroding under the weight of the Mandelson scandal, leaving him politically vulnerable ahead of crucial local elections.
Polymarket Bets on Orban Loss Jump Further as Hungarians Vote
Crypto prediction market Polymarket is betting heavily on opposition leader Peter Magyar ousting Viktor Orban as Hungary’s next prime minister, with implied odds topping 80%.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
Georgia’s 50% Trap: Pricing Runoff Risk in the 2026 Ossoff Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Jon Ossoff can clear the state’s 50% threshold.
