Insight
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
California’s Billionaire Tax Looks Strong - Until You Look Closer
Strong polls make California’s billionaire tax look tempting. But the market may still be overpricing how easily “Yes” survives November.
Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle Sets the Baseline — Can Part 2 Break It?
As Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba enters its final arc, the first installment of the Infinity Castle saga is beginning to provide a new benchmark for the franchise's commercial performance. According to data from Kogyo Tsushin and Box Office Mojo, the film continues to demonstrate strong global demand.
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates
Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein. Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday,
Trading Fame: How Prediction Markets Are Redefining Celebrity Equity
Pop culture is undergoing a radical evolution. It’s shifting from a side-hustle category on betting platforms into a sophisticated engine of social data where value is being completely restructured. From Discrete Events to Liquid Assets: The Financialization of Anne Hathaway’s 2026 As we cruise through 2026, the
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming. Can They Improve Forecasts?
Weather-focused prediction markets are rapidly expanding from niche bets to tools for testing AI models and pricing climate risk, promising sharper forecasts but raising concerns over manipulation and social value.
Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
Federal Preemption or State Sovereignty? A Legal Analysis and Prospective Assessment of Kalshi v. Nevada
Kalshi and Nevada clash over jurisdiction—federal law vs. state gambling rules. It now comes down to how nine Supreme Court justices read the statute.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
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