Labor Market
Macro & Micro Compass - $1.7 Trillion in Factories, 75,000 Fewer Jobs: What the Market Is Missing on Reshoring
Manufacturing investment is at record highs, but hiring isn't following. A look at the ISM, BLS, and robotics data behind reshoring's real jobs story.
Macro & Micro Compass - June Jobs Miss: How Will It Affect the Interest Rate Cycle?
The June jobs report gave markets a softer labor signal than the headline unemployment rate suggests.
Macro & Micro Compass - June NFP Report: Stability Is Priced In, But Is It Fully Supported by the Data?
Markets are pricing June NFP around 100,000-150,000 jobs, reflecting economist forecasts and recent labor data, as attention turns to how incoming prints align with current expectations.
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Says 5% Unemployment Is Still a Long Shot, but the Next Jobs Data Could Test That
Polymarket traders see 5% unemployment as a long shot, but weaker hiring, rising duration, and the next jobs report could challenge the 17% price.
Kalshi Does No Better Than Experts on Key Jobs Forecasting Test
Prediction markets have yet to outperform traditional economists on crucial U.S. jobs data, challenging their promise of superior crowd-sourced accuracy.
Macro & Micro Compass - Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
