4 posts
GDP
Defense & Aerospace Radar - US Defense Backlog Growth Looks Bullish. Manufacturing Capacity Says Otherwise
Defense contractors keep winning, but the industrial base keeps losing time. A look at the budget data and what the market isn't pricing in on defense.
What a Burnham Premiership Means for UK Stocks
A Burnham premiership would test UK equities through gilts, fiscal credibility and sector-specific policy risk.
Macro & Micro Compass - Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
Macro & Micro Compass - Colombia’s Real Threat Is Not Political
Colombia’s unexpectedly competitive three-way presidential race heightens investor anxiety, as a fragmented Congress and wary electorate imperil the deep fiscal tightening needed to avoid a confidence crisis.
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