Signals
CFTC Offers First Guidance on Manipulation in Prediction Markets
CFTC moved slightly to tighten oversight of booming prediction markets, urging pre-launch consultation on risky contracts and launching rulemaking to assert its authority over sports and geopolitical bets.
The Wildest Frat Party on Campus? Prediction Markets
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are aggressively courting college students as users and influencers, fueling insider-trading concerns, undisclosed ads and growing alarm over youth gambling risks.
DraftKings Is Using Its Sports-Betting Playbook to Win Prediction Markets Race
DraftKings is leveraging its dominant sports-betting infrastructure to push regulated prediction markets nationwide, targeting untaxed, higher-margin revenue and challenging early leader Kalshi despite investor impatience.
Prediction Market Boom Finds a New Challenger With Asia Roots
Asia-focused prediction market Opinion, backed by Binance-linked capital and turbocharged by token-style rewards, has seen its explosive early trading volumes fade as incentive-driven activity wanes.
Bets on Fate of Iran’s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets
Prediction markets face mounting political and regulatory scrutiny after lucrative bets on Iran’s Khamenei and U.S. strikes raised insider-trading and war-profiteering concerns.
Polymarket Insider-Trading Bet May Have Attracted More Insiders
Can you insider-trade on an investigation into your own insider trading?
Polymarket Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 Next Week, But Charts Disagree
Prediction markets show optimism, but momentum signals hidden weakness beneath Bitcoin price. Whale accumulation hides deeper split that could decide Bitcoin’s next major move.
Government shutdown odds spike ahead of Valentine’s Day
As funding talks fizzle between the GOP and Democrats in Congress, traders are expecting a partial government shutdown to begin this weekend. Kalshi markets now show an 82% chance of a shutdown beginning on Saturday. The shutdown saga continues Earlier this year, the most recent shutdown was ended after only
Kalshi Downloads Zoom Past Gambling Apps Ahead of Super Bowl
Just months ago, Kalshi Inc. lagged far behind FanDuel and DraftKings — the dominant players in US sports betting. Now, ahead of the Super Bowl, the crown jewel of the gambling calendar, the upstart prediction market has pulled far ahead, at least by one key metric: monthly app downloads. In January,
Prediction Traders Are Betting Bitcoin Will Fall Below $65,000
Bitcoin values have fallen to their lowest level since President Donald Trump took office. If prediction markets are to be believed, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency may have a lot further to fall. Bitcoin has lost 40% since it hit an all-time high of over $126,000 in
Wall Street Pros See Potential, Obstacles in Prediction Markets
Wall Street professionals have a broadly positive perception of prediction markets, but the nascent sector’s lack of liquidity is a key stumbling block to reaching the mainstream. Around 43% of market structure experts view prediction markets as an innovative value-add to the overall marketplace, according to a flash
