Federal Preemption or State Sovereignty? A Legal Analysis and Prospective Assessment of Kalshi v. Nevada
Kalshi and Nevada clash over jurisdiction—federal law vs. state gambling rules. It now comes down to how nine Supreme Court justices read the statute.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
‘Death Markets’ and Attack Ads: Prediction Rivalry Turns Nasty
A fierce public spat between Kalshi and Polymarket is exposing deep regulatory and ethical divides in the booming prediction market industry just as Washington scrutiny intensifies.
Brazil’s B3 Eyes Election Bets as It Enters Prediction Markets
Brazil’s B3 is entering prediction markets with new event contracts on assets and possibly elections, testing Brazil’s regulatory gray zone while targeting professional investors ahead of October’s presidential vote.
NFL asks prediction market operators to refrain from ‘objectionable bets’
The NFL is asking prediction market operators to keep specific event contracts that the league deems “objectionable bets” off of their platforms. In a letter obtained by CNBC, the league outlines examples of event contracts that could be easily manipulable by a single person, inherently objectionable, related to officiating and
Kalshi Approved for Margin Trading as It Lures Wall Street Pros
Kalshi won approval to offer margin trading via a new futures commission merchant unit, positioning it to court institutional investors and accelerate mainstream adoption.
Homophones, Plurals and Language ‘Rulescucks’ Are Roiling Prediction Markets
Prediction markets’ push to turn messy language into binary bets is forcing platforms into increasingly arbitrary, code-friendly rulebooks that undermine their claims to objective truth.
Can You Actually Model Elon's Tweeting? Two Tools Think So
Two new analytics tools help traders on Polymarket's weekly Elon Musk tweet markets move beyond speculation, though ultimately limited by the unpredictable nature of their human subject.
CFTC Forms New Task Force for Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets
The CFTC launched an Innovation Task Force covering crypto, AI, and prediction markets. Michael J. Passalacqua will lead the new unit under Chairman Michael S. Selig. The task force will work with the Innovation Advisory Committee and coordinate with agencies, including the SEC.
Georgia’s 50% Trap: Pricing Runoff Risk in the 2026 Ossoff Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Jon Ossoff can clear the state’s 50% threshold.
Kalshi, Polymarket Founders Back New Prediction Market VC Fund
A new $35 million venture fund, 5c(c) Capital, backed by prediction-market rivals Kalshi and Polymarket and top VCs, signals growing institutional confidence in regulated betting exchanges.
Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi
Nevada’s ban on Kalshi’s sports and election contracts underscores an escalating clash between state gambling regulators and federal derivatives authorities.
