News
Kalshi Does No Better Than Experts on Key Jobs Forecasting Test
Prediction markets have yet to outperform traditional economists on crucial U.S. jobs data, challenging their promise of superior crowd-sourced accuracy.
Underdog Hires Former Head of Crypto.com Prediction Exchange
Underdog's hiring of a Crypto.com veteran and acquisition of CFTC licenses signals a strategic push to dominate the sports prediction market amid regulatory battles.
Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
Kalshi Grilled by Massachusetts High Court Over What Gambling Is
Massachusetts' top court scrutinizes Kalshi's claim that prediction markets are financial swaps, not gambling, in a case testing state vs. federal regulatory authority.
Schumer Says House, White House Must Ban Prediction Market Bets
Senate Democrats push to extend a prediction market ban to all government officials amid insider trading concerns.
Clear Street Signs Up to Kalshi in Prediction Markets Push
Prediction markets are gaining institutional legitimacy through partnerships like Clear Street and Kalshi, bridging retail popularity with Wall Street sophistication.
CFTC Reviews Trader Data Report as Kalshi Expands in Commodities
The CFTC is reviewing its key trader-position reports as prediction markets like Kalshi expand into commodities, creating a regulatory gap in data transparency.
Kalshi, Polymarket Face New Rival in Crypto’s Hottest Exchange
Hyperliquid's expansion into prediction markets challenges Kalshi and Polymarket by leveraging its integrated multi-asset platform to blur the lines between derivatives and event trading.
US soldier pleads not guilty over prediction trades on Maduro capture
A US soldier's insider-trading case on Polymarket emerges as an early legal test for regulating the rapidly growing prediction markets.
Polymarket Seeks CFTC Blessing to Bring Main Exchange Back to US
Polymarket is seeking CFTC approval to reopen its main exchange to US users, a move that could accelerate the industry's growth amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
Let Candidates Place Bets on Themselves — at Least Sometimes
Prediction markets banning candidates from betting on their own races raises questions about whether such wagers truly threaten electoral integrity or merely signal confidence.
Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains
Prediction markets are promoted as a side hustle, but data shows most retail traders lose money as automated bots capture profits.
