Prediction Market
Schwab Considering Prediction Markets Linked to Finance Events
Charles Schwab is weighing launching finance-linked prediction markets as rivals push into the space, signaling mainstream brokerages may cautiously embrace betting-style tools while shunning pure gambling.
Wall Street Quants See an Edge in Polymarket Earnings Forecasts
Prediction markets are emerging as a surprisingly accurate, potentially faster alternative to Wall Street analysts for forecasting corporate earnings.
Kalshi Expands Commodity Predictions Market Amid War Volatility
Prediction market platform Kalshi is rapidly expanding into commodities contracts as geopolitical turmoil and volatile prices spur investors to use event betting alongside traditional hedging tools.
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates
Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.
Robinhood excludes some prediction markets over manipulation fears
Robinhood is aggressively expanding into prediction markets but is excluding riskier contracts such as “mention markets” amid mounting concerns over manipulation, insider trading and regulatory scrutiny.
Kalshi Wins Reprieve From Arizona Criminal Case at CFTC’s Urging
A federal judge temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against prediction market Kalshi after the CFTC argued state prosecutions unlawfully encroach on federal authority over derivatives markets.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming. Can They Improve Forecasts?
Weather-focused prediction markets are rapidly expanding from niche bets to tools for testing AI models and pricing climate risk, promising sharper forecasts but raising concerns over manipulation and social value.
The big state gamble on prediction markets
Prediction markets such as Kalshi are forcing a high-stakes showdown between state gambling laws and the CFTC’s claim of exclusive federal oversight over event-based derivatives.
Kalshi Win in New Jersey Fight Hailed as Big Victory Over States
A US appeals court ruling that Kalshi falls under CFTC oversight strengthens federal authority over fast-growing prediction markets, but a sharp dissent signals continuing state–federal clashes over gambling regulation.
CFTC Sues Illinois Over State Effort to Limit Prediction Markets
The CFTC has sued Illinois officials to block state gambling enforcement against prediction markets, escalating a jurisdictional clash over who regulates the booming industry.
Federal Preemption or State Sovereignty? A Legal Analysis and Prospective Assessment of Kalshi v. Nevada
Kalshi and Nevada clash over jurisdiction—federal law vs. state gambling rules. It now comes down to how nine Supreme Court justices read the statute.
