Bennet Caldwell
Obsessed with the wisdom of crowds. Trying my hand at betting on event contracts. I spend my time debugging code, brewing coffee, and finding the edge in decentralized forecasting.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
Can You Actually Model Elon's Tweeting? Two Tools Think So
Two new analytics tools help traders on Polymarket's weekly Elon Musk tweet markets move beyond speculation, though ultimately limited by the unpredictable nature of their human subject.
Georgia’s 50% Trap: Pricing Runoff Risk in the 2026 Ossoff Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Jon Ossoff can clear the state’s 50% threshold.
