Bennet Caldwell
Obsessed with the wisdom of crowds. Trying my hand at betting on event contracts. I spend my time debugging code, brewing coffee, and finding the edge in decentralized forecasting.
The Bonds Hidden Inside Prediction Markets
Prediction markets start as probability markets. Near certainty, some of them quietly become more like bond markets.
Spotify Verifies Streaming Manipulation After Malcolm Todd’s Suspicious Numbers
A Kalshi-Spotify incident shows how settlement based on the first print can reward temporary manipulation.
AI Speedrun - Is Anthropic “Tech”? Read the Fine Print Behind a Market
Anthropic looks obviously “tech,” but Kalshi’s sector market turns that assumption into a probability puzzle.
What a Burnham Premiership Means for UK Stocks
A Burnham premiership would test UK equities through gilts, fiscal credibility and sector-specific policy risk.
Global Chockpoint - When Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Shock May Not Be Over
A peace deal can reopen Hormuz, but fuel markets, refinery bottlenecks and demand will take longer to normalize.
An Abandoned Football Match and the Fragility of “Final Score”
One abandoned friendly football match became a test of how Polymarket and Kalshi handle messy real-world outcomes.
When Evidence Arrives Late: The MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale
When truth arrives late, prediction markets reveal a deeper problem: are traders betting on events, evidence, or the rulebook?
Rules & Mandates - Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Rules & Mandates - Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
California’s Billionaire Tax Looks Strong - Until You Look Closer
Strong polls make California’s billionaire tax look tempting. But the market may still be overpricing how easily “Yes” survives November.
Global Chokepoint - Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
