OpenAI takes the lead in AI IPO horse race: 'Getting to public markets first is very important'
OpenAI's reported imminent IPO filing has sharply reversed prediction market odds, positioning it to beat Anthropic in the race to become the first major AI company to go public.
Nvidia earnings call drama: Will Jensen Huang talk 'Trump' and China chips after Xi summit?
Prediction markets are using Nvidia's earnings call to wager on geopolitical risks, from Trump mentions to tariffs and Taiwan tensions.
Nearly 40% chances of stagflation by end of 2026, traders say
Markets now see a 40% chance of stagflation versus just 21% for a soft landing, reflecting fading economic optimism.
Trump to announce tariff truce extension, aircraft purchases from Boeing in China, traders predict
Prediction markets are pricing specific diplomatic outcomes from the Trump-Xi meeting, from Boeing orders to tariff extensions, as geopolitical events become financialized.
Traders will soon be able to bet on computer chip prices as AI drives costs skyward
Compute futures let traders hedge AI investments against volatile GPU prices in the booming artificial intelligence buildout.
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates
Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein. Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday,
NFL asks prediction market operators to refrain from ‘objectionable bets’
The NFL is asking prediction market operators to keep specific event contracts that the league deems “objectionable bets” off of their platforms. In a letter obtained by CNBC, the league outlines examples of event contracts that could be easily manipulable by a single person, inherently objectionable, related to officiating and
CFTC defends its right to prediction market enforcement as states challenge platforms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency has filed an amicus brief in federal court to assert its authority over prediction market enforcement and regulation.
Prediction volume hits record off Super Bowl Sunday
Parlays boosted sportsbook margins; Kalshi faced outages amid 20-fold volume spike Americans wagered a record $1.76 billion on the Super Bowl, according to American Gaming Association projections, as a wave of first-time bettors and an explosion in parlay activity delivered a windfall for the sports-betting industry
Kalshi expands surveillance, enforcement efforts ahead of Super Bowl 60
Kalshi on Thursday announced efforts to expand its surveillance and enforcement frameworks as skepticism builds around the booming prediction market industry. The announcement comes days before Super Bowl 60, which has already drawn more than $160 million in prediction market trading volume, according to Kalshi. The platform and its peers
