Macro & Micro Compass
The AI Boom Is Widening America’s Trade Deficit. Is It Also Nuking GDP?
AI investment is booming, yet the latest U.S. trade numbers reveal a cost investors may be underestimating.
India's Sugar Is Competing With Gasoline for the Same Sugarcane
E20 did not cause this supply shock, but it determines how much inventory India still has to absorb it.
Buyback Caps Double, 5% Sticks: Why Treasury’s Liquidity Fix Won’t Cure the Long End
Treasury upped long-end buybacks to $4B, but the 30-year is still sticky above 5%. While buybacks grease the operational wheels, they cannot mop up relentless Treasury supply, structurally wider deficits, or runaway net interest costs.
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2026: Follow the Dollar
Jackson Hole 2026 puts stablecoins and tokenization under the macro lens. For markets, the question is where liquidity, funding and Treasury demand move next.
Micro & Macro Compass - America Has A Duration Problem? How the AI Debt Boom Is Amplifying a Global Bond Selloff—and Testing the Dollar
America’s 30-year Treasury yield has reached its highest since 2007. This article explains how fiscal supply, global bond repricing and AI debt are lifting term premiums—and why Treasury buybacks have failed to stop the dollar from weakening.
Housing's Rate Problem Is Still Here, But the Cracks Aren't Everywhere
July housing starts plunged 12.4% while permits gained 5%. High rates are squeezing big-ticket, debt-dependent projects, but smaller jobs and Pro demand are keeping home improvement grounded.
Macro & Micro Compass - July CPI Cooled. Will the Fed Still Hike in September?
Headline CPI eased to 3.4%, core to 2.5%, both in line. Three hawkish dissents and a wobbling labor market keep September a two-way bet.
Macro & Micro Compass - Southern Europe’s Structural Decoupling: A Macroeconomic Reassessment for Institutional Capital
The macroeconomic paradigm within the eurozone has structurally inverted. While the traditional Franco-German core faces industrial stagnation—with 2026 GDP growth forecasts capped at 0.8% and 0.9% respectively—Southern Europe is now driving regional expansion. Spain (2.1%), Portugal (2.0%), and Greece (1.8%) are demonstrating
Macro & Micro Compass - The July ISM Breakdown: Are Business Costs Starting to Rise Again?
Businesses entered Q3 with stronger orders and higher costs, but little appetite to hire. July’s ISM data points to the next pressure on prices and margins.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Faces Close Call as Inflation Pressures Revive Rate-Hike Debate
Federal Reserve officials will enter this week’s policy meeting facing a renewed surge in price pressures, making the decision over whether to hold or raise interest rates unusually close — and potentially contentious.
Macro & Micro Compass - New-Home Sales, June 2026: The Cheaper House That Costs More
June’s new-home report looks like a small win for affordability. Let’s follow the lower price through to the buyer’s monthly bill.
Macro & Micro Compass - Two Consumers, One GDP Print: Here’s What to Expect From July 30 GDP and PCE Releases
Retail sales rose just 0.2% in June, but the gap between resilient headline data and squeezed households is widening. What to watch in the July 30 GDP and PCE releases.
