Macro & Micro Compass
Micro & Macro Compass - America Has A Duration Problem? How the AI Debt Boom Is Amplifying a Global Bond Selloff—and Testing the Dollar
America’s 30-year Treasury yield has reached its highest since 2007. This article explains how fiscal supply, global bond repricing and AI debt are lifting term premiums—and why Treasury buybacks have failed to stop the dollar from weakening.
Housing's Rate Problem Is Still Here, But the Cracks Aren't Everywhere
July housing starts plunged 12.4% while permits gained 5%. High rates are squeezing big-ticket, debt-dependent projects, but smaller jobs and Pro demand are keeping home improvement grounded.
Macro & Micro Compass - July CPI Cooled. Will the Fed Still Hike in September?
Headline CPI eased to 3.4%, core to 2.5%, both in line. Three hawkish dissents and a wobbling labor market keep September a two-way bet.
Macro & Micro Compass - Southern Europe’s Structural Decoupling: A Macroeconomic Reassessment for Institutional Capital
The macroeconomic paradigm within the eurozone has structurally inverted. While the traditional Franco-German core faces industrial stagnation—with 2026 GDP growth forecasts capped at 0.8% and 0.9% respectively—Southern Europe is now driving regional expansion. Spain (2.1%), Portugal (2.0%), and Greece (1.8%) are demonstrating
Macro & Micro Compass - The July ISM Breakdown: Are Business Costs Starting to Rise Again?
Businesses entered Q3 with stronger orders and higher costs, but little appetite to hire. July’s ISM data points to the next pressure on prices and margins.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Faces Close Call as Inflation Pressures Revive Rate-Hike Debate
Federal Reserve officials will enter this week’s policy meeting facing a renewed surge in price pressures, making the decision over whether to hold or raise interest rates unusually close — and potentially contentious.
Macro & Micro Compass - New-Home Sales, June 2026: The Cheaper House That Costs More
June’s new-home report looks like a small win for affordability. Let’s follow the lower price through to the buyer’s monthly bill.
Macro & Micro Compass - Two Consumers, One GDP Print: Here’s What to Expect From July 30 GDP and PCE Releases
Retail sales rose just 0.2% in June, but the gap between resilient headline data and squeezed households is widening. What to watch in the July 30 GDP and PCE releases.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Rate-Hike Bets Mount Before Inflation Data, Warsh Testimony
Bond traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month, ahead of a closely watched US inflation report and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Macro & Micro Compass - Federal Reserve Fed officials were split on direction of interest rates at last meeting, minutes show
Fed policymakers were split on the future of interest rates at their June meeting, with officials offering competing cases for hikes or cuts, according to minutes released Wednesday.
Macro & Micro Compass - $1.7 Trillion in Factories, 75,000 Fewer Jobs: What the Market Is Missing on Reshoring
Manufacturing investment is at record highs, but hiring isn't following. A look at the ISM, BLS, and robotics data behind reshoring's real jobs story.
Macro & Micro Compass - The BoE Eased Leverage Rules — But Not With the Gilt Exemption Banks Wanted
Hours before the Bank of England(BoE) published its July Financial Stability Report, we framed the leverage rule debate around three possible outcomes. Will the BoE Loosen Bank Leverage Rules to Support the Gilt Market?The Bank of England(BoE) is going to publish its July Financial Stability Report at
