CPI
Macro & Micro Compass - July CPI Cooled. Will the Fed Still Hike in September?
Headline CPI eased to 3.4%, core to 2.5%, both in line. Three hawkish dissents and a wobbling labor market keep September a two-way bet.
Breaking News - US CPI Falls for the First Time Since 2020
US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years and a key gauge of underlying inflation was little changed, taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Rate-Hike Bets Mount Before Inflation Data, Warsh Testimony
Bond traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month, ahead of a closely watched US inflation report and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Leans Toward an Overheating US Economy, But the Stagflation Trade Is Not Dead Yet
Polymarket traders are leaning toward an overheating US economy in 2026. But sticky inflation, oil risk, and a small rise in unemployment could point to a more uncomfortable outcome.
Macro & Micro Compass - Nearly 40% chances of stagflation by end of 2026, traders say
Markets now see a 40% chance of stagflation versus just 21% for a soft landing, reflecting fading economic optimism.
