CFTC Offers First Guidance on Manipulation in Prediction Markets
CFTC moved slightly to tighten oversight of booming prediction markets, urging pre-launch consultation on risky contracts and launching rulemaking to assert its authority over sports and geopolitical bets.
Prediction Markets Picked Texas Democratic Primary Winner But Missed on GOP Race
Texas’s Senate primaries underscore how liquid prediction markets can sometimes outpace traditional polls in gauging election outcomes, yet still misfire in complex, high-profile races.
Prediction Market Boom Finds a New Challenger With Asia Roots
Asia-focused prediction market Opinion, backed by Binance-linked capital and turbocharged by token-style rewards, has seen its explosive early trading volumes fade as incentive-driven activity wanes.
Iran Strikes Expose the Dark Edge Case of Prediction-Market Era
The weekend's real-world assassination of Khamenei has exposed the severe ethical and legal fault lines in an industry's quest to legitimize betting on geopolitical violence.
Kalshi and Polymarket Are Economic Oracles
Prediction markets offer central banks and policymakers a powerful new tool to gauge and influence the economic landscape.
Polymarket Insider-Trading Bet May Have Attracted More Insiders
Can you insider-trade on an investigation into your own insider trading?
How Polymarket and Kalshi are gamifying truth
From bettors wagering millions on Jerome Powell’s every word to billion-dollar valuations and mounting legal battles, prediction markets have leapt from fringe experiment to financial juggernaut—blurring the line between truth discovery and high-octane gambling.
CFTC Faces More Pushback From States Over Prediction Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is facing opposition from states over its bid to be the sole regulator of prediction markets.
Wall Street Wants to Bring Election Bets Into Brokerage Accounts
Roundhill Investments has asked the US Securities and Exchange Commission for permission to launch six ETFs that would let investors wager on US election outcomes through standard brokerage accounts — the most ambitious attempt yet to bring prediction markets into mainstream finance. The proposed exchange-traded funds, disclosed in a filing
Polymarket Hands New Yorkers Free Groceries After Mamdani Taunt
Prediction market startup Polymarket opened a temporary grocery store in Manhattan’s West Village on Thursday, giving away free food and household staples in a promotional campaign that was delayed by logistical issues.
Israelis Charged With Using Classified Intel for Polymarket Bets
Israeli authorities have filed charges against two suspects accused of using classified information to place bets on prediction platform Polymarket.
Super Bowl Gives Prediction Bets Record $1.2 Billion Trading Day
Analysts have grown increasingly bearish on gambling companies in recent months as prediction markets have presented a formidable competitive threat much more quickly than many anticipated.
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