Kalshi and Polymarket Rewrite the Super Bowl Playbook for Pro Gamblers
The sudden rise of prediction markets has sophisticated bettors scrambling to adjust their strategies. During his more than 15 years as a professional sports gambler, Rufus Peabody has built up an elaborate system of software tools and surrogate bettors that allow him to spot favorable odds offered by bookmakers of
Kalshi expands surveillance, enforcement efforts ahead of Super Bowl 60
Kalshi on Thursday announced efforts to expand its surveillance and enforcement frameworks as skepticism builds around the booming prediction market industry. The announcement comes days before Super Bowl 60, which has already drawn more than $160 million in prediction market trading volume, according to Kalshi. The platform and its peers
CFTC Withdraws Proposal Banning Prediction Market Sports Betting
The head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said the agency has withdrawn a Biden-era proposal that called for prohibiting sports and politics-related wagers on prediction markets. “The 2024 event contracts proposal reflected the prior administration’s frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political contracts ahead of
Prediction Traders Are Betting Bitcoin Will Fall Below $65,000
Bitcoin values have fallen to their lowest level since President Donald Trump took office. If prediction markets are to be believed, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency may have a lot further to fall. Bitcoin has lost 40% since it hit an all-time high of over $126,000 in October,
Kalshi Claims ‘Extortion,’ Then Recants in Feud Over User Losses
It began innocuously enough. A stock analyst pulled data on betting results to argue that users of booming prediction markets were losing money faster than on traditional gambling apps. Then it spiraled. Kalshi Inc., the biggest US prediction market, told Bloomberg the analysis wasn’t just wrong. It was part
Crypto.com Launches Predictions-Only Platform Before Super Bowl
Crypto.com is launching a dedicated platform, OG, for prediction markets just days before the Super Bowl, the company said Tuesday. A pioneer of federally-regulated sports-themed prediction markets, Crypto.com co-founder and and Chief Executive Officer Kris Marszalek said a stand-alone product is warranted after 40-fold growth week-over-week in its
Wall Street Pros See Potential, Obstacles in Prediction Markets
Wall Street professionals have a broadly positive perception of prediction markets, but the nascent sector’s lack of liquidity is a key stumbling block to reaching the mainstream. Around 43% of market structure experts view prediction markets as an innovative value-add to the overall marketplace, according to a flash survey
CFTC to Craft New Prediction Market Rules, Chairman Says
Wall Street’s main derivatives regulator will write new rules for the multi-billion dollar prediction markets industry, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Thursday. “It is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets,” Chairman Michael Selig said
How-Tos
Section 1: How to Choose a Platform There's no single "best" prediction market platform. The right one depends on what you want to trade, where you're located, and what kind of experience you're looking for. This guide won't recommend a
Kalshi Fed Forecasts Are as Good as Wall Street’s, Study Says
Kalshi, the booming platform that churns out predictions on everything from the Super Bowl to US elections, is showing early promise as an accurate forecaster of Federal Reserve policy and economic data, a new study finds. When it comes to predicting interest-rate decisions, Kalshi is “roughly consistent” with professionals such
Crypto Traders Flee to Prediction Bets After Crash
Not long ago, Nikshep Saravanan was deep in the crypto trenches — trading memecoins, reaching out to venture capitalists, and trying to launch a startup for digital creators. By January, he’d dropped it all. These days, he spends hours on prediction markets, tracking odds on everything from sports to politics.
Polymarket Steps Into Legal Gray Area by Hosting Trades on War
Even as prediction-market platforms have tested legal and regulatory norms like never before, most have drawn a line at one category: direct wagers on war. Not Polymarket. In recent weeks, the startup — newly backed by Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange — has listed a
