Analysis
An Abandoned Football Match and the Fragility of “Final Score”
One abandoned friendly football match became a test of how Polymarket and Kalshi handle messy real-world outcomes.
When Evidence Arrives Late: The MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale
When truth arrives late, prediction markets reveal a deeper problem: are traders betting on events, evidence, or the rulebook?
Bad Behavior Is Moving Markets. Where Are the Regulators?
Lax oversight of prediction markets and traditional assets fuels insider trading risks, eroding investor trust in market integrity.
New ATH: 332,230 Wallets Now Hold 10,000+ XRP As Price Remains Flat
Although the price of XRP has been moving flat recently, on-chain data shows that whales have been buying this coin behind the scenes. Notably, there are now 332,230 wallets that hold over 10,000 XRP coins. This is a new ATH for XRP. Not only that, this milestone
Weekly Casserole - After the Hottest IPO Debut (Cerebras) of the Year, Will SpaceX Top Over It, and What Next?
Cerebras Systems’ explosive Nasdaq debut has propelled the chip designer into the $100 billion club, boosting AI infrastructure landscape yet again, as it pivots from hardware sales to a direct cloud offensive against titans like Google and Microsoft. With OpenAI once eyeing the company as a "secret weapon"
There’s Still Time to Make Prediction Markets Useful
Deregulation has fueled a prediction market boom, but the resulting sports-dominated platforms now face a reckoning over whether they are gambling or socially useful forecasting tools.
Weekly Casserole - Cerebras IPO, US-China Talk Kick-Off in Seoul, Jensen Huang’s Last-Minute Invite, Alibaba/Tencent Results and more — Fueling another Rally or Forging a Rivalry?
AI is pivoting toward a "transactional infrastructure" phase, where the focus has shifted from general AI hype to the specific mechanics of deployment and trade. In the semiconductor space, capital is aggressively chasing inference-specialized hardware to solve the high-latency bottlenecks currently stalling real-time AI applications.
Strategy’s Potential BTC Sell-Off or Circle’s Stablecoin Takeover: Will Crypto Fly or Tank?
Is crypto market yet at another historical crossroads? Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy signals it might break the “never sell” approach to the flagship crypto BTC. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers are updating the rules of stablecoin adoption, which could be a net win for the sector. Reading between the lines, what
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
US soldier pleads not guilty over prediction trades on Maduro capture
A US soldier's insider-trading case on Polymarket emerges as an early legal test for regulating the rapidly growing prediction markets.
Insider Trading Cases Threaten Reckoning for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets boom amid insider trading allegations, triggering White House skepticism and heightened regulatory scrutiny.
California’s Billionaire Tax Looks Strong - Until You Look Closer
Strong polls make California’s billionaire tax look tempting. But the market may still be overpricing how easily “Yes” survives November.
