Politics
CFTC Floats Prediction Market Rule to Crack Down on War Bets
The CFTC moves to assert jurisdiction over surging prediction markets by proposing to ban bets on war and terrorism while permitting most sports contracts.
China is helping to cushion global oil prices below $100 — but analysts warn it won’t last
China's crude import cuts have cushioned oil prices during the Iran war, yet analysts warn higher prices are needed to rebuild depleted inventories.
Kalshi, Polymarket to Be Targeted in House GOP Stock Ban
House Republicans seek to add restrictions on lawmakers' prediction market bets to their stock trading ban bill, citing insider trading risks.
George Santos’ Kalshi Bets About Himself Spark Insider Trading Investigation
The surge in prediction markets has triggered increased regulatory investigations and platform actions over insider trading concerns.
CFTC Awards Five Whistleblowers $8 Million for Enforcement Tips
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it will award more than $8 million to five whistleblowers who provided information that helped agency investigators recover funds for defrauded investors. The Wall Street regulator didn’t identify the tipsters or the scheme they flagged, but said the individuals helped the agency
Traders on Kalshi indicate that May's jobs report will top Wall Street expectations
Traders on Kalshi expect that job creation in May will see a slowdown but still surpass Dow Jones consensus.
Rubio odds for GOP 2028 nominee close to overtaking Vance on Kalshi
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is seen as increasingly likely to be the GOP nominee in 2028, according to traders on prediction market platforms.
White House Reviews CFTC Plan to Supervise Prediction Markets
CFTC is asserting federal authority over the booming prediction market industry, proposing new rules in a jurisdictional battle with states seeking to regulate it as gambling.
Bad Behavior Is Moving Markets. Where Are the Regulators?
Lax oversight of prediction markets and traditional assets fuels insider trading risks, eroding investor trust in market integrity.
Rules & Mandates - Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Polymarket, Kalshi Face Spanish Ban
Spain moves to block prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, highlighting growing regulatory scrutiny of the fast-expanding betting markets.
Polymarket Banned in Indonesia After Bets on Prabowo’s Ouster
Prediction markets face growing global regulatory crackdowns as governments classify them as gambling and move to block access over political and security concerns.
