Signals
Rubio odds for GOP 2028 nominee close to overtaking Vance on Kalshi
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is seen as increasingly likely to be the GOP nominee in 2028, according to traders on prediction market platforms.
Polymarket Trading Volume Declines for First Time Since August
Polymarket's operational stumbles and first volume drop in eight months highlight its struggle to maintain momentum as rival Kalshi surges ahead.
Strategy’s Potential BTC Sell-Off or Circle’s Stablecoin Takeover: Will Crypto Fly or Tank?
Is crypto market yet at another historical crossroads? Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy signals it might break the “never sell” approach to the flagship crypto BTC. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers are updating the rules of stablecoin adoption, which could be a net win for the sector. Reading between the lines, what
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates
Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.
Polymarket Bets on Orban Loss Jump Further as Hungarians Vote
Crypto prediction market Polymarket is betting heavily on opposition leader Peter Magyar ousting Viktor Orban as Hungary’s next prime minister, with implied odds topping 80%.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
CFTC Forms New Task Force for Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets
The CFTC launched an Innovation Task Force covering crypto, AI, and prediction markets. Michael J. Passalacqua will lead the new unit under Chairman Michael S. Selig. The task force will work with the Innovation Advisory Committee and coordinate with agencies, including the SEC.
Georgia’s 50% Trap: Pricing Runoff Risk in the 2026 Ossoff Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Jon Ossoff can clear the state’s 50% threshold.
How ‘Irrelevant’ Prediction Market Detail Led to Death Threats
Fast-growing prediction markets are exposing a core weakness as disputed contracts and after-the-fact trading create incentives to distort information and intimidate reporters.
2026 Primary Barometer: Kalshi’s Trending Contracts Signal Major Shifts in Texas and Illinois
2026 Election Odds, Prediction Market Alpha, Kalshi Primary Trading, Texas Senate Odds 2026, Illinois Democratic Primary Forecast, Trump Endorsement Effect.
Arizona Files Illegal-Gambling Charges Against Predictions Platform Kalshi
Arizona’s criminal case against Kalshi underscores an escalating jurisdictional clash between states and federal regulators.
