Commodity Desk - Massive Options Bet Rattles Oil Market On Edge Over Iran War
A massive, unexplained Brent crude options trade is amplifying market jitters and integrity concerns amid geopolitical volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
Polymarket Deepens Push to Allow Bets on Value of Hot Startups
Polymarket's Nasdaq Private Market partnership expands contracts on unlisted companies, tapping retail investor demand for pre-IPO exposure amid regulatory gray areas.
Kalshi, Polymarket Defy India Ban on Online Betting Platforms
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi defy India's gambling ban, testing global regulatory limits as they expand.
There’s Still Time to Make Prediction Markets Useful
Deregulation has fueled a prediction market boom, but the resulting sports-dominated platforms now face a reckoning over whether they are gambling or socially useful forecasting tools.
Virtu Starts Trading on Kalshi as Event Bets Draw in Wall Street
Institutional market-makers like Virtu Financial are entering prediction markets, legitimizing them as a new asset class despite ongoing regulatory and legal uncertainties.
Polymarket Trading Volume Declines for First Time Since August
Polymarket's operational stumbles and first volume drop in eight months highlight its struggle to maintain momentum as rival Kalshi surges ahead.
Kalshi Judge Predicts Tribe Will Win Block on Sports Contracts
A federal judge's ruling signals tribal nations may gain regulatory leverage over prediction markets under IGRA, challenging Kalshi's federal oversight argument.
A $400 AI Bet That’s Actually a High-Stakes Wager on the Future of Work
AI is already boosting US productivity, but its long-term impact on jobs remains uncertain and potentially disruptive.
Macro & Micro Compass - Trust the Numbers? What to Do When the Data Is Under Attack
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a squeeze between political pressure on official data and the rise of alternative metrics, forcing him to defend statistical neutrality.
Prediction Market Ban for US House Members, Staff Gets GOP Push
Congress moves to ban members from trading on prediction markets, targeting a new ethics loophole after similar Senate action.
Kalshi Secures $22 Billion Valuation in Coatue-Led Round
Prediction market platforms are seeing valuations surge as trading volumes grow, with Kalshi doubling to $22B amid intense investor interest.
Kalshi Does No Better Than Experts on Key Jobs Forecasting Test
Prediction markets have yet to outperform traditional economists on crucial U.S. jobs data, challenging their promise of superior crowd-sourced accuracy.
