Anecdote
Are Prediction Markets Becoming the New Election Dashboard?
Reuters(July 22) - Kalshi has launched a dedicated U.S. midterm election hub combining real time prediction market prices with polling averages, campaign fundraising, historical results, and political analysis. Will prediction market becomes a standard feature of major election dashboards by Dec. 2026? YESResult46.83%NOResult53.17%489 PollsEndedTBD Notes
Kalshi's Files Contracts for Airport Flight Cancellation Rate
Kalshi’s airport flight cancellation contracts reduce manipulation risk, but basis risk makes them a weak hedge for any one traveler.
Macro & Micro Compass - Can Trump Bend the Fed Before the Data Does?
The next fight over the Federal Reserve is no longer just about inflation, jobs, or the timing of the next rate move. It is also becoming a test of how much political pressure markets believe the Fed can absorb. Will Trump materially reshape the Fed before his current term? Yes,
The Truth Is Out There — the Money Isn't.
The year 2026 has been perhaps the most transparent year in the history of the US government’s willingness to talk about the unexplained. Since May 8, the Pentagon has been declassifying records through PURSUE, the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters. PURSUE is a product of a
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Leans Toward an Overheating US Economy, But the Stagflation Trade Is Not Dead Yet
Polymarket traders are leaning toward an overheating US economy in 2026. But sticky inflation, oil risk, and a small rise in unemployment could point to a more uncomfortable outcome.
Nine Crypto Whales Dominate Polymarket Disputes Worth Billions
Polymarket's decentralized dispute system has concentrated power in nine wallets, undermining its credibility as a truth machine and raising market integrity risks.
Rules & Mandates - Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
Kalshi Does No Better Than Experts on Key Jobs Forecasting Test
Prediction markets have yet to outperform traditional economists on crucial U.S. jobs data, challenging their promise of superior crowd-sourced accuracy.
Business school professors’ picks: discussion on Prediction Market
Prediction markets are scaling rapidly, but concerns over financial exploitation and regulatory gaps challenge their legitimacy.
Global Chokepoint - Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
Global Chokepoint - What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Global Chokepoint - Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
