Geopolitics
US soldier pleads not guilty over prediction trades on Maduro capture
A US soldier's insider-trading case on Polymarket emerges as an early legal test for regulating the rapidly growing prediction markets.
Global Chokepoint - Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
Global Chokepoint - What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Singapore Minister Says Worst Case on War Not Fully Priced
Singapore warns that markets remain complacent about the Iran war’s impact as Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten Asia’s energy security, inflation, and growth.
Global Chokepoint - Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
Macro & Micro Compass - Colombia’s Real Threat Is Not Political
Colombia’s unexpectedly competitive three-way presidential race heightens investor anxiety, as a fragmented Congress and wary electorate imperil the deep fiscal tightening needed to avoid a confidence crisis.
Bets on Fate of Iran’s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets
Prediction markets face mounting political and regulatory scrutiny after lucrative bets on Iran’s Khamenei and U.S. strikes raised insider-trading and war-profiteering concerns.
Israelis Charged With Using Classified Intel for Polymarket Bets
Israeli authorities have filed charges against two suspects accused of using classified information to place bets on prediction platform Polymarket.
Polymarket Steps Into Legal Gray Area by Hosting Trades on War
Even as prediction-market platforms have tested legal and regulatory norms like never before, most have drawn a line at one category: direct wagers on war. Not Polymarket. In recent weeks, the startup — newly backed by Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange — has listed
