Insight
Polymarket Leans Toward an Overheating US Economy, But the Stagflation Trade Is Not Dead Yet
Polymarket traders are leaning toward an overheating US economy in 2026. But sticky inflation, oil risk, and a small rise in unemployment could point to a more uncomfortable outcome.
BTS Boss Arrested, Company Stock Collapsing? The Illusion of HYBE's Prosperity
Behind HYBE’s record revenues and BTS's 2026 comeback lies a sharp crisis.
An Abandoned Football Match and the Fragility of “Final Score”
One abandoned friendly football match became a test of how Polymarket and Kalshi handle messy real-world outcomes.
China is helping to cushion global oil prices below $100 — but analysts warn it won’t last
China's crude import cuts have cushioned oil prices during the Iran war, yet analysts warn higher prices are needed to rebuild depleted inventories.
Kalshi is building a prediction markets 'Bloomberg Terminal' for high-end traders, source says
Kalshi is developing a Bloomberg Terminal-style interface for prediction markets, targeting professional traders as it expands into new asset classes.
When Evidence Arrives Late: The MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale
When truth arrives late, prediction markets reveal a deeper problem: are traders betting on events, evidence, or the rulebook?
Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula
Prediction markets are gaining institutional traction, but their forecasting reliability is hampered by low liquidity and ambiguous contract design.
Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
There’s Still Time to Make Prediction Markets Useful
Deregulation has fueled a prediction market boom, but the resulting sports-dominated platforms now face a reckoning over whether they are gambling or socially useful forecasting tools.
A $400 AI Bet That’s Actually a High-Stakes Wager on the Future of Work
AI is already boosting US productivity, but its long-term impact on jobs remains uncertain and potentially disruptive.
Bitcoin ETFs Add $467M in a Single Day as BTC Reclaims the $81,000 Resistance Level - $85,000 Next?
On May 5, US spot Bitcoin ETFs gained $467.38 million in net inflows. This is the fourth day of net inflows and shows that the institutional interest in BTC is now rising. Amid all this, the price of BTC has been soaring. In fact, it went past the $81,
