Insight
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains
Prediction markets are promoted as a side hustle, but data shows most retail traders lose money as automated bots capture profits.
California’s Billionaire Tax Looks Strong - Until You Look Closer
Strong polls make California’s billionaire tax look tempting. But the market may still be overpricing how easily “Yes” survives November.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle Sets the Baseline — Can Part 2 Break It?
As Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba enters its final arc, the first installment of the Infinity Castle saga is beginning to provide a new benchmark for the franchise's commercial performance. According to data from Kogyo Tsushin and Box Office Mojo, the film continues to demonstrate strong global demand.
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates
Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.
Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming. Can They Improve Forecasts?
Weather-focused prediction markets are rapidly expanding from niche bets to tools for testing AI models and pricing climate risk, promising sharper forecasts but raising concerns over manipulation and social value.
Federal Preemption or State Sovereignty? A Legal Analysis and Prospective Assessment of Kalshi v. Nevada
Kalshi and Nevada clash over jurisdiction—federal law vs. state gambling rules. It now comes down to how nine Supreme Court justices read the statute.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
Kalshi, Polymarket Founders Back New Prediction Market VC Fund
A new $35 million venture fund, 5c(c) Capital, backed by prediction-market rivals Kalshi and Polymarket and top VCs, signals growing institutional confidence in regulated betting exchanges.
Trump has undermined the US national security apparatus
Trump’s unchecked rush to war with Iran, enabled by a gutted diplomatic and security apparatus, underscores how weakened institutions are eroding constitutional and practical restraints on US military power.
Women Wanted: Kalshi Pushes to Expand Far Beyond Sport Bets
Prediction market platform Kalshi is pushing beyond male-dominated sports betting to court women with pop culture and politics wagers, aiming to broaden growth and reduce legal vulnerability.
Iran Strikes Expose the Dark Edge Case of Prediction-Market Era
The weekend's real-world assassination of Khamenei has exposed the severe ethical and legal fault lines in an industry's quest to legitimize betting on geopolitical violence.
