Oil & Gas
Global Chokepoint - Reopening of Strait of Hormuz No Longer Equates to Normal Resumption
Following the June 17 signing at Versailles of the US and Iran memorandum of understanding, the market reaction was immediate: oil prices fell, Asian equities rallied, and traders began to price a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices fell over 4%, while Asian benchmarks surged, responding
Commodity Desk - Oil Is Pricing a Hormuz Reopening. The July Contract Needs Proof
Oil prices are already trading a Hormuz recovery, but Polymarket’s July market needs the PortWatch ship count to hit its settlement threshold before July 31.
Global Chokepoint - Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
The fragile reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces multifaceted challenges, from mines and attacks to unclear authority, making a swift return to prewar energy flows slow and uncertain.
Global Chockpoint - When Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Shock May Not Be Over
A peace deal can reopen Hormuz, but fuel markets, refinery bottlenecks and demand will take longer to normalize.
Commodity Desk - The Iran deal came just in time as Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to a 40-year low following massive releases to counter Iran war disruptions, heightening risks of a price spike.
China is helping to cushion global oil prices below $100 — but analysts warn it won’t last
China's crude import cuts have cushioned oil prices during the Iran war, yet analysts warn higher prices are needed to rebuild depleted inventories.
Commodity Desk - Massive Options Bet Rattles Oil Market On Edge Over Iran War
A massive, unexplained Brent crude options trade is amplifying market jitters and integrity concerns amid geopolitical volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
Global Chokepoint - Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
Global Chokepoint - What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Global Chokepoint - Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
