Politics
Polymarket Bets on Orban Loss Jump Further as Hungarians Vote
Crypto prediction market Polymarket is betting heavily on opposition leader Peter Magyar ousting Viktor Orban as Hungary’s next prime minister, with implied odds topping 80%.
Kalshi Wins Reprieve From Arizona Criminal Case at CFTC’s Urging
A federal judge temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against prediction market Kalshi after the CFTC argued state prosecutions unlawfully encroach on federal authority over derivatives markets.
Global Chokepoint - What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
The big state gamble on prediction markets
Prediction markets such as Kalshi are forcing a high-stakes showdown between state gambling laws and the CFTC’s claim of exclusive federal oversight over event-based derivatives.
Singapore Minister Says Worst Case on War Not Fully Priced
Singapore warns that markets remain complacent about the Iran war’s impact as Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten Asia’s energy security, inflation, and growth.
Kalshi Win in New Jersey Fight Hailed as Big Victory Over States
A US appeals court ruling that Kalshi falls under CFTC oversight strengthens federal authority over fast-growing prediction markets, but a sharp dissent signals continuing state–federal clashes over gambling regulation.
Global Chokepoint - Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
CFTC Sues Illinois Over State Effort to Limit Prediction Markets
The CFTC has sued Illinois officials to block state gambling enforcement against prediction markets, escalating a jurisdictional clash over who regulates the booming industry.
Federal Preemption or State Sovereignty? A Legal Analysis and Prospective Assessment of Kalshi v. Nevada
Kalshi and Nevada clash over jurisdiction—federal law vs. state gambling rules. It now comes down to how nine Supreme Court justices read the statute.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
‘Death Markets’ and Attack Ads: Prediction Rivalry Turns Nasty
A fierce public spat between Kalshi and Polymarket is exposing deep regulatory and ethical divides in the booming prediction market industry just as Washington scrutiny intensifies.
Brazil’s B3 Eyes Election Bets as It Enters Prediction Markets
Brazil’s B3 is entering prediction markets with new event contracts on assets and possibly elections, testing Brazil’s regulatory gray zone while targeting professional investors ahead of October’s presidential vote.
